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The paper presents a valuable review of state-of-the-art large ensemble methodology, comparing observational-based analogues and model-generated perturbations with the aim of studying the impact of long-term variability on European past, present and future climate. This work is helpful as a theoretical and methodological benchmark for a number of open issues in ensemble modeling, that are currently the object of intense discussions in the research community. Given that this topic very much relates to the work done within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, and ultimately to the redaction of the IPCC Assessment Reports, the paper is of major interest for the research community as well as for the broader public.

This study suggests a necessary shift in the paradigm of nonlinear dynamical systems analysis in climate science, ecology, and beyond. The author delves into a relatively unexplored facet of critical transitions, which is of great importance in examples within the Earth and environmental sciences. In particular, she explains mechanisms based on these ideas in examples of systems that describe population dynamics and climate transitions.

This paper is a review of very high quality of works done on an aspect which is absolutely fundamental for climate science