Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-73-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Collection:
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-73-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
Research article
 | 
12 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 12 Feb 2026

MESMER-RCM: a probabilistic climate emulator for regional warming projections

Hao Pan, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

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Short summary
Existing regional climate model (RCM) emulators mainly provide deterministic emulations, while internal RCM variability is typically not represented. We develop MESMER-RCM, a probabilistic RCM emulator for annual 2-m temperature, using a simple and physically interpretable approach. We demonstrate its ability to emulate both RCM trends and internal variability in a high-dimensional spatial setting, where existing approaches typically struggle.
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