Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-73-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Collection:
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-73-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
Research article
 | 
12 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 12 Feb 2026

MESMER-RCM: a probabilistic climate emulator for regional warming projections

Hao Pan, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

Viewed

Total article views: 6,734 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
5,495 947 292 6,734 368 333 366
  • HTML: 5,495
  • PDF: 947
  • XML: 292
  • Total: 6,734
  • Supplement: 368
  • BibTeX: 333
  • EndNote: 366
Views and downloads (calculated since 02 Jul 2025)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 02 Jul 2025)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 6,734 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 6,649 with geography defined and 85 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Saved (final revised paper)

Latest update: 11 Nov 2026
Download
Short summary
Existing regional climate model (RCM) emulators mainly provide deterministic emulations, while internal RCM variability is typically not represented. We develop MESMER-RCM, a probabilistic RCM emulator for annual 2-m temperature, using a simple and physically interpretable approach. We demonstrate its ability to emulate both RCM trends and internal variability in a high-dimensional spatial setting, where existing approaches typically struggle.
Read more
Share
Collection
A collection on artificial intelligence and the complexity...