Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-373-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-373-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
Research article
 | 
20 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 20 Jul 2026

An improved noise model for representing westerly wind bursts in the recharge oscillator model of ENSO

Georg A. Gottwald, Eli Tziperman, and Alexey Fedorov

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Cited articles

Applebaum, D.: Lévy Processes and Stochastic Calculus, in: vol. 116 of Cambridge Studies in Advanced Mathematics, 2nd Edn., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, ISBN 978-0-521-73865-1, 2009. a
Bianucci, M.: Analytical probability density function for the statistics of the ENSO phenomenon: Asymmetry and power law tail, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 386–394, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066772, 2016. a
Bianucci, M., Capotondi, A., Merlino, S., and Mannella, R.: Estimate of the average timing for strong El Niño events using the recharge oscillator model with a multiplicative perturbation, Chaos, 28, 103118, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5030413, 2018. a
Burgers, G., Jin, F., and van Oldenborgh, G.: The simplest ENSO recharge oscillator, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022951, 2005. a, b
Chechkin, A. V., Metzler, R., Klafter, J., and Gonchar, V. Y.: Introduction to the theory of Lévy flights, in: Anomalous Transport, edited by: Klages, R., Radons, G., and Sokolov, I. M., Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 29–162, https://doi.org/10.1002/9783527622979.ch5, 2008. a
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The recharge oscillator model has served as a simple yet powerful toy model for modelling the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Whereas the addition of Gaussian noise is sufficient to capture the observed overall statistical features, it fails to resolve dynamical signatures associated with major El Niño events. Here we propose to employ a conditional non-Gaussian noise model that better captures the effect of large westerly wind bursts and their effect on major warming events.
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