Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-347-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-347-2026
Research article
 | 
14 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 14 Jul 2026

Formulation of parametric uncertainty forecasts towards operational wildfire smoke assimilation

Annika Vogel, Richard Ménard, James Abu, and Jack Chen

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Latest update: 14 Jul 2026
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Short summary
Recent wildfire activity in Canada has been rising the public demand for fast, yet accurate operational air quality forecasts along with related forecast uncertainties. This study explores the potential of an efficient process-based approach to estimate forecast uncertainties of operational air quality models. Our results show its potential for understanding how uncertainties of operational forecast evolve over time and an improved use of sparse observation signals at remote wildfire regions.
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