Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-335-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-335-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
Research article
 | 
06 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 06 Jul 2026

Noise-scaled accuracy of the ensemble Kalman filter with an instability-based minimum ensemble size

Kota Takeda and Takemasa Miyoshi

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Short summary
This study examines the minimum ensemble size for accurate geophysical forecasting using a method called the ensemble Kalman filter. We reformulate accuracy via observation noise-dependency to classify filter performance qualitatively. Through numerical experiments with a chaotic model, we link the minimum ensemble size for the accuracy to system's instability and propose an effective ensemble downsizing method that ensures both stability and accuracy.
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