Articles | Volume 33, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-303-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-303-2026
Research article
 | 
08 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 08 Jun 2026

Nonlinear quantitative relationship between the duration and occurrence frequency of droughts

Pengcheng Yan, Guolin Feng, Cailing Zhao, Ping Yang, Hao Wu, and Dongdong Zuo

Related authors

Dynamic–statistic combined ensemble prediction and impact factors of China's summer precipitation
Xiaojuan Wang, Zihan Yang, Shuai Li, Qingquan Li, and Guolin Feng
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 117–130, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-117-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-117-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Feng, A. Q., Liu, L. L., Wang, G. F., Tang, J., Zhang, X. J., Chen, Y. X., He, X. J., and Liu, P.: Drought Monitoring from Fengyun Satellite Series: A Comparative Analysis with Meteorological-Drought Composite Index (MCI), Remote Sens., 15, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15225410, 2023. 
Hou, W., Zhang, C. J., and Gao, G.: Research on Multi-scale Superposed Drought Index and Its Classification Based on Standardized Precipitation Index, Arid Zone Res., 30, 74–88, https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2013.01.025, 2013. 
Huang, M. T. and Zhai, P. M.: Impact of extreme seasonal drought on ecosystem carbon-water coupling across China, Adv. Clim. Change Res., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.001, 2024. 
Li, X., Ding, R. Q., and Li, J. P.: Quantitative Comparison of Predictabilities of Warm and Cold Events Using the Backward Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent Method, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 37, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-2100-5, 2020. 
Li, X., Ding, R. Q., and Li, J. P.: Estimating the local predictability of heatwaves in south China using the backward nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method, Clim. Dynam., 61, 3605–3618, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06757-z, 2023. 
Download
Short summary
In this study, we examine the relationship between drought duration and frequency across China using daily data. We find a clear double-logarithmic relationship between the duration and the frequency. We also show that droughts in dry northwestern areas tend to last for months, while those in wet southeastern regions are shorter but more frequent. This pattern holds across all drought intensities. Overall, our findings offer a simple tool for drought risk assessment and water management.
Share