Articles | Volume 29, issue 1
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 17–35, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022

Special issue: Centennial issue on nonlinear geophysics: accomplishments...

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 17–35, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022
Review article
 | Highlight paper
07 Feb 2022
Review article  | Highlight paper | 07 Feb 2022

How many modes are needed to predict climate bifurcations? Lessons from an experiment

Bérengère Dubrulle et al.

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Subject: Scaling, multifractals, turbulence, complex systems, self-organized criticality | Topic: Climate, atmosphere, ocean, hydrology, cryosphere, biosphere | Techniques: Theory
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Cited articles

Andersen, K. K.: High resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period, Nature, 431, 147–151, 2004. a
Bayr, T., Dommenget, D., and Latif, M.: Walker circulation controls ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in uncoupled and coupled climate model simulations, Clim. Dynam., 54, 2831–2846, 2020. a
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., et al.: Presentation and evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a
Brenowitz, N. D. and Bretherton, C. S.: Prognostic validation of a neural network unified physics parameterization, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6289–6298, 2018. a
Brenowitz, N. D. and Bretherton, C. S.: Spatially Extended Tests of a Neural Network Parametrization Trained by Coarse-Graining, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2728–2744, 2019. a
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Short summary
Present climate models discuss climate change but show no sign of bifurcation in the future. Is this because there is none or because they are in essence too simplified to be able to capture them? To get elements of an answer, we ran a laboratory experiment and discovered that the answer is not so simple.