Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 27, issue 2
Articles | Volume 27, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-329-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-329-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 27, issue 2
Research article
 | 
29 May 2020
Research article |  | 29 May 2020

From research to applications – examples of operational ensemble post-processing in France using machine learning

Maxime Taillardat and Olivier Mestre

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Cited articles

Athey, S., Tibshirani, J., and Wager, S.: Generalized random forests, Ann. Stat., 47, 1148–1178, 2019. a
Baran, S. and Lerch, S.: Combining predictive distributions for the statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts, Int. J. Forecast., 34, 477–496, 2018. a
Barry, R. G.: Mountain weather and climate, London and New York, Routledge, 2nd edn., 2008. a
Bellier, J., Bontron, G., and Zin, I.: Using meteorological analogues for reordering postprocessed precipitation ensembles in hydrological forecasting, Water Resour. Res., 53, 10085–10107, 2017. a
Bellier, J., Zin, I., and Bontron, G.: Generating Coherent Ensemble Forecasts After Hydrological Postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC-Based Methods, Water Resour. Res., 54, 5741–5762, 2018. a
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Short summary
Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts is now a well-known procedure in order to correct biased and misdispersed ensemble weather predictions. But practical application in European national weather services is in its infancy. Different applications of ensemble post-processing using machine learning at an industrial scale are presented. Forecast quality and value are improved compared to the raw ensemble, but several facilities have to be made to adjust to operational constraints.
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Advances in post-processing and blending of deterministic...