Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 27, issue 2
Articles | Volume 27, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-187-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-187-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 27, issue 2
Research article
 | 
16 Apr 2020
Research article |  | 16 Apr 2020

Simulating model uncertainty of subgrid-scale processes by sampling model errors at convective scales

Michiel Van Ginderachter, Daan Degrauwe, Stéphane Vannitsem, and Piet Termonia

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Short summary
A generic methodology is developed to estimate the model error and simulate the model uncertainty related to a specific physical process. The method estimates the model error by comparing two different representations of the physical process in otherwise identical models. The found model error can then be used to perturb the model and simulate the model uncertainty. When applying this methodology to deep convection an improvement in the probabilistic skill of the ensemble forecast is found.
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