Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 589–604, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-589-2018

Special issue: Numerical modeling, predictability and data assimilation in...

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 589–604, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-589-2018

Research article 24 Aug 2018

Research article | 24 Aug 2018

Ensemble variational assimilation as a probabilistic estimator – Part 2: The fully non-linear case

Mohamed Jardak and Olivier Talagrand

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Latest update: 14 May 2021
Short summary
EnsVAR is fundamentally successful in that, even in conditions where Bayesianity cannot be expected, it produces ensembles which possess a high degree of statistical reliability. In non-linear strong-constraint cases, EnsVAR has been successful here only through the use of quasi-static variational assimilation. In the weak-constraint case, without QSVA, EnsVAR provided new evidence as to the favourable effect.