Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-403-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-403-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Research article
 | 
24 Jul 2015
Research article |  | 24 Jul 2015

Verification against perturbed analyses and observations

N. E. Bowler, M. J. P. Cullen, and C. Piccolo

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Latest update: 16 May 2025
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Short summary
It has long been known that verification of a forecast against the sequence of analyses used to produce those forecasts can under-estimate the magnitude of forecast errors. Here we show that under certain conditions the verification of a short-range forecast against a perturbed analysis coming from an ensemble data assimilation scheme can give the same root-mean-square error as verification against the truth. This means that a perturbed analysis can be used as a reliable proxy for the truth.
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