Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-403-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-403-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Research article
 | 
24 Jul 2015
Research article |  | 24 Jul 2015

Verification against perturbed analyses and observations

N. E. Bowler, M. J. P. Cullen, and C. Piccolo

Viewed

Total article views: 1,978 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
1,152 694 132 1,978 164 195
  • HTML: 1,152
  • PDF: 694
  • XML: 132
  • Total: 1,978
  • BibTeX: 164
  • EndNote: 195
Views and downloads (calculated since 24 Jul 2015)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 24 Jul 2015)
Latest update: 07 Nov 2025
Download
Short summary
It has long been known that verification of a forecast against the sequence of analyses used to produce those forecasts can under-estimate the magnitude of forecast errors. Here we show that under certain conditions the verification of a short-range forecast against a perturbed analysis coming from an ensemble data assimilation scheme can give the same root-mean-square error as verification against the truth. This means that a perturbed analysis can be used as a reliable proxy for the truth.
Read more
Share