Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-403-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-403-2015
Research article
 | 
24 Jul 2015
Research article |  | 24 Jul 2015

Verification against perturbed analyses and observations

N. E. Bowler, M. J. P. Cullen, and C. Piccolo

Related authors

Retrieving Tropospheric Refractivity Structure using Interferometry of Aircraft Radio Transmissions
Ollie Lewis, Chris Brunt, Malcolm Kitchen, Neill E. Bowler, and Edmund K. Stone
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2273,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2273, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
Short summary
Download
Short summary
It has long been known that verification of a forecast against the sequence of analyses used to produce those forecasts can under-estimate the magnitude of forecast errors. Here we show that under certain conditions the verification of a short-range forecast against a perturbed analysis coming from an ensemble data assimilation scheme can give the same root-mean-square error as verification against the truth. This means that a perturbed analysis can be used as a reliable proxy for the truth.