Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-123-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-123-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
Research article
 | 
19 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 19 Mar 2026

Beyond static forecasts: a dynamic stress gradient framework for high-resolution aftershock prediction and mitigation

Boi-Yee Liao

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Short summary
After major earthquakes, smaller shocks often follow, yet predicting where they will occur remains difficult. This study introduces a new method for tracking changes in underground stress after a large earthquake. Using the 2018 Hualien earthquake in Taiwan as a case study, we found that areas with strong stress differences provide clearer signals of future aftershocks than stress magnitude alone. This approach can improve short-term earthquake risk assessment and disaster response planning.
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