Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-471-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-471-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
Research article
 | 
24 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 24 Nov 2025

On process-oriented conditional targeted covariance inflation (TCI) for 3D-volume radar data assimilation

Klaus Vobig, Roland Potthast, and Klaus Stephan

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Cited articles

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Bachmann, K., Keil, C., Craig, G. C., Weissmann, M., and Welzbacher, C. A.: Predictability of Deep Convection in Idealized and Operational Forecasts: Effects of Radar Data Assimilation, Orography, and Synoptic Weather Regime, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0045.1, 2020. a
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We present a novel approach to targeted covariance inflation (TCI) which aims to improve the assimilation of 3D radar reflectivity and, possibly, short-term forecasts of reflectivity and precipitation. Using an operational numerical weather prediction framework, our numerical results show that TCI makes the system accurately generate new reflectivity cells and significantly improves the fractional skill score of forecasts over lead times of up to 6 h by up to 10 %.
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