Articles | Volume 31, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-259-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-259-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Jun 2024
Research article |
| 26 Jun 2024
| 26 Jun 2024
A quest for precipitation attractors in weather radar archives
Loris Foresti
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Locarno-Monti, Switzerland
Bernat Puigdomènech Treserras
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, Canada
Daniele Nerini
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Locarno-Monti, Switzerland
Aitor Atencia
GeoSphere Austria, Vienna, Austria
Marco Gabella
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Locarno-Monti, Switzerland
Ioannis V. Sideris
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Locarno-Monti, Switzerland
Urs Germann
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Locarno-Monti, Switzerland
Isztar Zawadzki
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, Canada
deceased, 11 February 2023
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Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4891–4914, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4891-2024, 2024
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Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
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Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Alfonso Ferrone, Jérôme Kopp, Martin Lainer, Marco Gabella, Urs Germann, and Alexis Berne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 7143–7168, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-7143-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-7143-2024, 2024
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Estimates of hail size have been collected by a network of hail sensors, installed in three regions of Switzerland, since September 2018. In this study, we use a technique called “double-moment normalization” to model the distribution of diameter sizes. The parameters of the method have been defined over 70 % of the dataset and tested over the remaining 30 %. An independent distribution of hail sizes, collected by a drone, has also been used to evaluate the method.
Frédéric P. A. Vogt, Loris Foresti, Daniel Regenass, Sophie Réthoré, Néstor Tarin Burriel, Mervyn Bibby, Przemysław Juda, Simone Balmelli, Tobias Hanselmann, Pieter du Preez, and Dirk Furrer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4891–4914, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4891-2024, 2024
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Jérôme Kopp, Alessandro Hering, Urs Germann, and Olivia Martius
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4529–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4529-2024, 2024
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We present a verification of two products based on weather radars to detect the presence of hail and estimate its size. Radar products are remote detection of hail, so they must be verified against ground-based observations. We use reports from users of the Swiss Weather Services phone app to do the verification. We found that the product estimating the presence of hail provides fair results but that it should be recalibrated and that estimating the hail size with radar is more challenging.
Kristofer S. Tuftedal, Bernat Puigdomènech Treserras, Mariko Oue, and Pavlos Kollias
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5637–5657, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5637-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5637-2024, 2024
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This study analyzed coastal convective cells from June through September 2018–2021. The cells were classified and their lifecycles were analyzed to better understand their characteristics. Features such as convective-core growth, for example, are shown. The study found differences in the initiation location of shallow convection and in the aerosol loading in deep convective environments. This work provides a foundation for future analyses of convection or other tracked events elsewhere.
Martin Lainer, Killian P. Brennan, Alessandro Hering, Jérôme Kopp, Samuel Monhart, Daniel Wolfensberger, and Urs Germann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2539–2557, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2539-2024, 2024
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This study uses deep learning (the Mask R-CNN model) on drone-based photogrammetric data of hail on the ground to estimate hail size distributions (HSDs). Traditional hail sensors' limited areas complicate the full HSD retrieval. The HSD of a supercell event on 20 June 2021 is retrieved and contains > 18 000 hailstones. The HSD is compared to automatic hail sensor measurements and those of weather-radar-based MESHS. Investigations into ground hail melting are performed by five drone flights.
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Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 4409–4422, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4409-2023, 2023
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Jérôme Kopp, Agostino Manzato, Alessandro Hering, Urs Germann, and Olivia Martius
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3487–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3487-2023, 2023
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We present the first study of extended field observations made by a network of 80 automatic hail sensors from Switzerland. The sensors record the exact timing of hailstone impacts, providing valuable information about the local duration of hailfall. We found that the majority of hailfalls lasts just a few minutes and that most hailstones, including the largest, fall during a first phase of high hailstone density, while a few remaining and smaller hailstones fall in a second low-density phase.
Jonathan Demaeyer, Jonas Bhend, Sebastian Lerch, Cristina Primo, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Aitor Atencia, Zied Ben Bouallègue, Jieyu Chen, Markus Dabernig, Gavin Evans, Jana Faganeli Pucer, Ben Hooper, Nina Horat, David Jobst, Janko Merše, Peter Mlakar, Annette Möller, Olivier Mestre, Maxime Taillardat, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2635–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2635-2023, 2023
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A benchmark dataset is proposed to compare different statistical postprocessing methods used in forecasting centers to properly calibrate ensemble weather forecasts. This dataset is based on ensemble forecasts covering a portion of central Europe and includes the corresponding observations. Examples on how to download and use the data are provided, a set of evaluation methods is proposed, and a first benchmark of several methods for the correction of 2 m temperature forecasts is performed.
Matteo Guidicelli, Matthias Huss, Marco Gabella, and Nadine Salzmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 977–1002, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-977-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-977-2023, 2023
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Spatio-temporal reconstruction of winter glacier mass balance is important for assessing long-term impacts of climate change. However, high-altitude regions significantly lack reliable observations, which is limiting the calibration of glaciological and hydrological models. We aim at improving knowledge on the spatio-temporal variations in winter glacier mass balance by exploring the combination of data from reanalyses and direct snow accumulation observations on glaciers with machine learning.
Jussi Leinonen, Ulrich Hamann, Urs Germann, and John R. Mecikalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 577–597, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-577-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-577-2022, 2022
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We evaluate the usefulness of different data sources and variables to the short-term prediction (
nowcasting) of severe thunderstorms using machine learning. Machine-learning models are trained with data from weather radars, satellite images, lightning detection and weather forecasts and with terrain elevation data. We analyze the benefits provided by each of the data sources to predicting hazards (heavy precipitation, lightning and hail) caused by the thunderstorms.
Monika Feldmann, Urs Germann, Marco Gabella, and Alexis Berne
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1225–1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1225-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1225-2021, 2021
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Mesocyclones are the rotating updraught of supercell thunderstorms that present a particularly hazardous subset of thunderstorms. A first-time characterisation of the spatiotemporal occurrence of mesocyclones in the Alpine region is presented, using 5 years of Swiss operational radar data. We investigate parallels to hailstorms, particularly the influence of large-scale flow, daily cycles and terrain. Improving understanding of mesocyclones is valuable for risk assessment and warning purposes.
Hélène Barras, Olivia Martius, Luca Nisi, Katharina Schroeer, Alessandro Hering, and Urs Germann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1167–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, 2021
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In Switzerland hail may occur several days in a row. Such multi-day hail events may cause significant damage, and understanding and forecasting these events is important. Using reanalysis data we show that weather systems over Europe move slower before and during multi-day hail events compared to single hail days. Surface temperatures are typically warmer and the air more humid over Switzerland and winds are slower on multi-day hail clusters. These results may be used for hail forecasting.
Martin Lainer, Jordi Figueras i Ventura, Zaira Schauwecker, Marco Gabella, Montserrat F.-Bolaños, Reto Pauli, and Jacopo Grazioli
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 3541–3560, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-3541-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-3541-2021, 2021
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We show results from two unique measurement campaigns aimed at better understanding effects of large wind turbines on radar returns by deploying a mobile X-band weather radar system in the proximity of a small wind park. Measurements were taken in 24/7 operation with dedicated scan strategies to retrieve the variability and most extreme values of reflectivity and radar cross-section of the wind turbines. The findings are useful for wind turbine interference mitigation measures in radar systems.
Daniel Wolfensberger, Marco Gabella, Marco Boscacci, Urs Germann, and Alexis Berne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 3169–3193, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-3169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-3169-2021, 2021
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In this work, we present a novel quantitative precipitation estimation method for Switzerland that uses random forests, an ensemble-based machine learning technique. The estimator has been trained with a database of 4 years of ground and radar observations. The results of an in-depth evaluation indicate that, compared with the more classical method in use at MeteoSwiss, this novel estimator is able to reduce both the average error and bias of the predictions.
Maxi Boettcher, Andreas Schäfler, Michael Sprenger, Harald Sodemann, Stefan Kaufmann, Christiane Voigt, Hans Schlager, Donato Summa, Paolo Di Girolamo, Daniele Nerini, Urs Germann, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5477–5498, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5477-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5477-2021, 2021
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important airstreams in extratropical cyclones, often leading to the formation of intense precipitation. We present a case study that involves aircraft, lidar and radar observations of water and clouds in a WCB ascending from western Europe across the Alps towards the Baltic Sea during the field campaigns HyMeX and T-NAWDEX-Falcon in October 2012. A probabilistic trajectory measure and an airborne tracer experiment were used to confirm the long pathway of the WCB.
Rebecca Gugerli, Matteo Guidicelli, Marco Gabella, Matthias Huss, and Nadine Salzmann
Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 7–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-7-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-7-2021, 2021
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To obtain reliable snowfall estimates in high mountain remains a challenge. This study uses daily snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates by a cosmic ray sensor on two Swiss glaciers to assess three
readily-available high-quality precipitation products. We find a large bias between in situ SWE and snowfall, which differs among the precipitation products, the two sites, the winter seasons and in situ meteorological conditions. All products have great potential for various applications in the Alps.
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Short summary
We compared two ways of defining the phase space of low-dimensional attractors describing the evolution of radar precipitation fields. The first defines the phase space by the domain-scale statistics of precipitation fields, such as their mean, spatial and temporal correlations. The second uses principal component analysis to account for the spatial distribution of precipitation. To represent different climates, radar archives over the United States and the Swiss Alpine region were used.
We compared two ways of defining the phase space of low-dimensional attractors describing the...
