Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 30, issue 3
Articles | Volume 30, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-299-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-299-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 3
Research article
 | 
21 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 21 Jul 2023

An approach for projecting the timing of abrupt winter Arctic sea ice loss

Camille Hankel and Eli Tziperman

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Short summary
We present a novel, efficient method for identifying climate tipping point threshold values of CO2 beyond which rapid and irreversible changes occur. We use a simple model of Arctic sea ice to demonstrate the method’s efficacy and its potential for use in state-of-the-art global climate models that are too expensive to run for this purpose using current methods. The ability to detect tipping points will improve our preparedness for rapid changes that may occur under future climate change.
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