Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 27, issue 1
Articles | Volume 27, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-35-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-35-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 27, issue 1
Research article
 | 
06 Feb 2020
Research article |  | 06 Feb 2020

Order of operation for multi-stage post-processing of ensemble wind forecast trajectories

Nina Schuhen

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Short summary
We present a new way to adaptively improve weather forecasts by incorporating last-minute observation information. The recently measured error, together with a statistical model, gives us an indication of the expected future error of wind speed forecasts, which are then adjusted accordingly. This new technique can be especially beneficial for customers in the wind energy industry, where it is important to have reliable short-term forecasts, as well as providers of extreme weather warnings.
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Advances in post-processing and blending of deterministic...