Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 633–648, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-633-2018

Special issue: Numerical modeling, predictability and data assimilation in...

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 633–648, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-633-2018

Research article 04 Sep 2018

Research article | 04 Sep 2018

Chaotic dynamics and the role of covariance inflation for reduced rank Kalman filters with model error

Colin Grudzien et al.

Data sets

cgrudz/role_of_covariance_inflation_supplementary_materials: First release (Version v1.0) C. Grudzien https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1404189

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Short summary
Using the framework Lyapunov vectors, we analyze the asymptotic properties of ensemble based Kalman filters and how these are influenced by dynamical chaos, especially in the context of random model errors and small ensemble sizes. Particularly, we show a novel derivation of the evolution of forecast uncertainty for ensemble-based Kalman filters with weakly-nonlinear error growth, and discuss its impact for filter design in geophysical models.