How does the quality of a prediction depend on the magnitude of the events under study?

Hallerberg, S.; Kantz, H.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-321-2008

Articles | Volume 15, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-321-2008

© Author(s) 2008. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

Special issue:

Predictability in Earth Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-321-2008

© Author(s) 2008. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 2

16 Apr 2008

| 16 Apr 2008

How does the quality of a prediction depend on the magnitude of the events under study?

S. Hallerberg and H. Kantz

Viewed

Total article views: 1,927 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
1,059	714	154	1,927	167	148

HTML: 1,059
PDF: 714
XML: 154
Total: 1,927
BibTeX: 167
EndNote: 148

Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Feb 2013	7	13	6	26
Mar 2013	1	6	0	7
Apr 2013	2	7	0	9
May 2013	3	8	1	12
Jun 2013	3	7	0	10
Jul 2013	1	13	0	14
Aug 2013	9	4	0	13
Sep 2013	5	0	5
Oct 2013	4	11	0	15
Nov 2013	4	7	1	12
Dec 2013	2	5	1	8
Jan 2014	5	10	2	17
Feb 2014	5	14	2	21
Mar 2014	11	7	2	20
Apr 2014	3	6	1	10
May 2014	5	8	0	13
Jun 2014	2	6	2	10
Jul 2014	4	12	0	16
Aug 2014	6	11	1	18
Sep 2014	4	8	0	12
Oct 2014	2	10	0	12
Nov 2014	4	9	1	14
Dec 2014	3	8	1	12
Jan 2015	10	0	10
Feb 2015	10	1	0	11
Mar 2015	7	1	0	8
Apr 2015	10	2	0	12
May 2015	4	1	0	5
Jun 2015	24	3	0	27
Jul 2015	15	2	0	17
Aug 2015	4	3	0	7
Sep 2015	1	0	1
Oct 2015	11	1	0	12
Nov 2015	8	2	0	10
Dec 2015	2	2	0	4
Jan 2016	9	5	0	14
Feb 2016	4	1	0	5
Mar 2016	9	2	1	12
Apr 2016	7	2	0	9
May 2016	4	1	0	5
Jun 2016	5	3	0	8
Jul 2016	3	1	1	5
Aug 2016	5	1	0	6
Sep 2016	6	1	0	7
Oct 2016	7	2	0	9
Nov 2016	3	1	0	4
Dec 2016	5	1	0	6
Jan 2017	4	1	0	5
Feb 2017	3	2	0	5
Mar 2017	6	4	1	11
Apr 2017	10	3	0	13
May 2017	11	1	0	12
Jun 2017	10	1	0	11
Jul 2017	8	4	0	12
Aug 2017	3	4	0	7
Sep 2017	8	8	0	16
Oct 2017	5	11	1	17
Nov 2017	2	12	0	14
Dec 2017	8	6	1	15
Jan 2018	25	12	9	46
Feb 2018	20	4	6	30
Mar 2018	8	9	2	19
Apr 2018	11	9	3	23
May 2018	13	9	3	25
Jun 2018	12	9	4	25
Jul 2018	12	5	6	23
Aug 2018	18	7	4	29
Sep 2018	10	7	3	20
Oct 2018	12	8	6	26
Nov 2018	6	4	1	11
Dec 2018	9	6	2	17
Jan 2019	10	8	4	22
Feb 2019	14	6	2	22
Mar 2019	7	5	1	13
Apr 2019	13	9	2	24
May 2019	8	3	3	14
Jun 2019	7	7	0	14
Jul 2019	2	4	0	6
Aug 2019	3	4	0	7
Sep 2019	5	5	0	10
Oct 2019	3	6	1	10
Nov 2019	4	5	0	9
Dec 2019	3	8	0	11
Jan 2020	9	5	3	17
Feb 2020	5	7	0	12
Mar 2020	6	6	1	13
Apr 2020	5	6	0	11
May 2020	4	3	0	7
Jun 2020	15	8	1	24
Jul 2020	31	21	24	76
Aug 2020	2	4	4	10
Sep 2020	9	4	1	14
Oct 2020	6	12	1	19
Nov 2020	6	6	1	13
Dec 2020	6	1	0	7
Jan 2021	14	6	0	20
Feb 2021	9	3	0	12
Mar 2021	3	4	0	7
Apr 2021	4	1	0	5
May 2021	2	3	0	5
Jun 2021	5	1	0	6
Jul 2021	4	3	0	7
Aug 2021	2	3	0	5
Sep 2021	8	3	0	11
Oct 2021	3	17	0	20
Nov 2021	5	15	0	20
Dec 2021	5	0	5
Jan 2022	10	5	1	16
Feb 2022	5	1	1	7
Mar 2022	6	4	0	10
Apr 2022	3	3	0	6
May 2022	3	2	1	6
Jun 2022	7	1	1	9
Jul 2022	4	1	5
Aug 2022	8	2	0	10
Sep 2022	2	1	0	3
Oct 2022	7	1	1	9
Nov 2022	4	5	0	9
Dec 2022	12	1	0	13
Jan 2023	4	7	1	12
Feb 2023	7	0	7
Mar 2023	9	3	2	14
Apr 2023	2	1	0	3
May 2023	4	6	0	10
Jun 2023	5	2	0	7
Jul 2023	8	1	0	9
Aug 2023	4	2	1	7
Sep 2023	2	4	0	6
Oct 2023	4	3	0	7
Nov 2023	4	0	4
Dec 2023	5	2	0	7
Jan 2024	4	2	0	6
Feb 2024	2	3	0	5
Mar 2024	1	2	0	3
Apr 2024	6	2	3	11
May 2024	10	6	3	19
Jun 2024	43	4	3	50
Jul 2024	11	6	1	18
Aug 2024	43	1	2	46
Sep 2024	3	4	3	10
Oct 2024	9	2	0	11
Nov 2024	8	1	2	11
Dec 2024	3	1	0	4
Jan 2025	4	5	0	9
Feb 2025	15	3	0	18
Mar 2025	10	3	1	14
Apr 2025	4	7	1	12
May 2025	16	3	1	20
Jun 2025	4	0	4

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Feb 2013	7	13	6	26
Mar 2013	1	6	0	7
Apr 2013	2	7	0	9
May 2013	3	8	1	12
Jun 2013	3	7	0	10
Jul 2013	1	13	0	14
Aug 2013	9	4	0	13
Sep 2013	5	0	5
Oct 2013	4	11	0	15
Nov 2013	4	7	1	12
Dec 2013	2	5	1	8
Jan 2014	5	10	2	17
Feb 2014	5	14	2	21
Mar 2014	11	7	2	20
Apr 2014	3	6	1	10
May 2014	5	8	0	13
Jun 2014	2	6	2	10
Jul 2014	4	12	0	16
Aug 2014	6	11	1	18
Sep 2014	4	8	0	12
Oct 2014	2	10	0	12
Nov 2014	4	9	1	14
Dec 2014	3	8	1	12
Jan 2015	10	0	10
Feb 2015	10	1	0	11
Mar 2015	7	1	0	8
Apr 2015	10	2	0	12
May 2015	4	1	0	5
Jun 2015	24	3	0	27
Jul 2015	15	2	0	17
Aug 2015	4	3	0	7
Sep 2015	1	0	1
Oct 2015	11	1	0	12
Nov 2015	8	2	0	10
Dec 2015	2	2	0	4
Jan 2016	9	5	0	14
Feb 2016	4	1	0	5
Mar 2016	9	2	1	12
Apr 2016	7	2	0	9
May 2016	4	1	0	5
Jun 2016	5	3	0	8
Jul 2016	3	1	1	5
Aug 2016	5	1	0	6
Sep 2016	6	1	0	7
Oct 2016	7	2	0	9
Nov 2016	3	1	0	4
Dec 2016	5	1	0	6
Jan 2017	4	1	0	5
Feb 2017	3	2	0	5
Mar 2017	6	4	1	11
Apr 2017	10	3	0	13
May 2017	11	1	0	12
Jun 2017	10	1	0	11
Jul 2017	8	4	0	12
Aug 2017	3	4	0	7
Sep 2017	8	8	0	16
Oct 2017	5	11	1	17
Nov 2017	2	12	0	14
Dec 2017	8	6	1	15
Jan 2018	25	12	9	46
Feb 2018	20	4	6	30
Mar 2018	8	9	2	19
Apr 2018	11	9	3	23
May 2018	13	9	3	25
Jun 2018	12	9	4	25
Jul 2018	12	5	6	23
Aug 2018	18	7	4	29
Sep 2018	10	7	3	20
Oct 2018	12	8	6	26
Nov 2018	6	4	1	11
Dec 2018	9	6	2	17
Jan 2019	10	8	4	22
Feb 2019	14	6	2	22
Mar 2019	7	5	1	13
Apr 2019	13	9	2	24
May 2019	8	3	3	14
Jun 2019	7	7	0	14
Jul 2019	2	4	0	6
Aug 2019	3	4	0	7
Sep 2019	5	5	0	10
Oct 2019	3	6	1	10
Nov 2019	4	5	0	9
Dec 2019	3	8	0	11
Jan 2020	9	5	3	17
Feb 2020	5	7	0	12
Mar 2020	6	6	1	13
Apr 2020	5	6	0	11
May 2020	4	3	0	7
Jun 2020	15	8	1	24
Jul 2020	31	21	24	76
Aug 2020	2	4	4	10
Sep 2020	9	4	1	14
Oct 2020	6	12	1	19
Nov 2020	6	6	1	13
Dec 2020	6	1	0	7
Jan 2021	14	6	0	20
Feb 2021	9	3	0	12
Mar 2021	3	4	0	7
Apr 2021	4	1	0	5
May 2021	2	3	0	5
Jun 2021	5	1	0	6
Jul 2021	4	3	0	7
Aug 2021	2	3	0	5
Sep 2021	8	3	0	11
Oct 2021	3	17	0	20
Nov 2021	5	15	0	20
Dec 2021	5	0	5
Jan 2022	10	5	1	16
Feb 2022	5	1	1	7
Mar 2022	6	4	0	10
Apr 2022	3	3	0	6
May 2022	3	2	1	6
Jun 2022	7	1	1	9
Jul 2022	4	1	5
Aug 2022	8	2	0	10
Sep 2022	2	1	0	3
Oct 2022	7	1	1	9
Nov 2022	4	5	0	9
Dec 2022	12	1	0	13
Jan 2023	4	7	1	12
Feb 2023	7	0	7
Mar 2023	9	3	2	14
Apr 2023	2	1	0	3
May 2023	4	6	0	10
Jun 2023	5	2	0	7
Jul 2023	8	1	0	9
Aug 2023	4	2	1	7
Sep 2023	2	4	0	6
Oct 2023	4	3	0	7
Nov 2023	4	0	4
Dec 2023	5	2	0	7
Jan 2024	4	2	0	6
Feb 2024	2	3	0	5
Mar 2024	1	2	0	3
Apr 2024	6	2	3	11
May 2024	10	6	3	19
Jun 2024	43	4	3	50
Jul 2024	11	6	1	18
Aug 2024	43	1	2	46
Sep 2024	3	4	3	10
Oct 2024	9	2	0	11
Nov 2024	8	1	2	11
Dec 2024	3	1	0	4
Jan 2025	4	5	0	9
Feb 2025	15	3	0	18
Mar 2025	10	3	1	14
Apr 2025	4	7	1	12
May 2025	16	3	1	20
Jun 2025	4	0	4

Cited

Latest update: 04 Jun 2025

How does the quality of a prediction depend on the magnitude of the events under study?

Viewed

Cited

8 citations as recorded by crossref.