Relative impact of model quality and ensemble deficiencies on the performance of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts evaluated through the Brier score

Atger, F.

doi:10.5194/npg-11-399-2004

Articles | Volume 11, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-399-2004

© Author(s) 2004. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-399-2004

© Author(s) 2004. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 3

14 Sep 2004

| 14 Sep 2004

Relative impact of model quality and ensemble deficiencies on the performance of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts evaluated through the Brier score

F. Atger

Viewed

Total article views: 1,871 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
1,091	646	134	1,871	180	210

HTML: 1,091
PDF: 646
XML: 134
Total: 1,871
BibTeX: 180
EndNote: 210

Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Feb 2013	6	9	6	21
Mar 2013	1	6	0	7
Apr 2013	1	7	0	8
May 2013	2	7	0	9
Jun 2013	3	7	0	10
Jul 2013	2	10	0	12
Aug 2013	9	4	0	13
Sep 2013	8	0	8
Oct 2013	4	9	0	13
Nov 2013	8	0	8
Dec 2013	1	5	0	6
Jan 2014	2	9	0	11
Feb 2014	3	8	1	12
Mar 2014	8	8	0	16
Apr 2014	1	9	0	10
May 2014	3	6	1	10
Jun 2014	2	7	2	11
Jul 2014	1	14	0	15
Aug 2014	6	9	1	16
Sep 2014	3	8	0	11
Oct 2014	2	7	0	9
Nov 2014	4	7	1	12
Dec 2014	1	9	1	11
Jan 2015	7	0	7
Feb 2015	6	0	6
Mar 2015	7	0	7
Apr 2015	10	2	0	12
May 2015	4	0	4
Jun 2015	23	1	0	24
Jul 2015	18	1	0	19
Aug 2015	5	6	0	11
Sep 2015	2	0	2
Oct 2015	13	2	0	15
Nov 2015	9	1	0	10
Dec 2015	2	2	0	4
Jan 2016	10	4	0	14
Feb 2016	6	3	0	9
Mar 2016	8	0	8
Apr 2016	7	2	0	9
May 2016	4	2	0	6
Jun 2016	4	1	0	5
Jul 2016	4	2	1	7
Aug 2016	4	2	0	6
Sep 2016	5	1	0	6
Oct 2016	3	0	3
Nov 2016	3	1	0	4
Dec 2016	3	0	3
Jan 2017	2	0	2
Feb 2017	2	0	2
Mar 2017	8	0	8
Apr 2017	11	4	1	16
May 2017	10	1	0	11
Jun 2017	9	1	0	10
Jul 2017	8	3	0	11
Aug 2017	6	3	2	11
Sep 2017	5	7	1	13
Oct 2017	4	4	1	9
Nov 2017	2	3	1	6
Dec 2017	4	5	2	11
Jan 2018	19	11	10	40
Feb 2018	7	5	1	13
Mar 2018	9	5	3	17
Apr 2018	9	7	4	20
May 2018	7	7	3	17
Jun 2018	12	6	4	22
Jul 2018	14	8	6	28
Aug 2018	13	7	4	24
Sep 2018	8	3	3	14
Oct 2018	14	7	6	27
Nov 2018	5	4	0	9
Dec 2018	11	2	2	15
Jan 2019	8	5	0	13
Feb 2019	13	5	1	19
Mar 2019	11	7	1	19
Apr 2019	11	3	1	15
May 2019	9	6	2	17
Jun 2019	1	4	1	6
Jul 2019	3	5	0	8
Aug 2019	2	2	0	4
Sep 2019	3	3	0	6
Oct 2019	3	6	0	9
Nov 2019	4	1	0	5
Dec 2019	2	5	0	7
Jan 2020	5	5	3	13
Feb 2020	5	2	0	7
Mar 2020	1	5	1	7
Apr 2020	4	0	4
May 2020	2	2	0	4
Jun 2020	12	6	0	18
Jul 2020	27	15	15	57
Aug 2020	5	6	3	14
Sep 2020	11	3	1	15
Oct 2020	6	9	0	15
Nov 2020	6	3	0	9
Dec 2020	10	5	0	15
Jan 2021	13	2	0	15
Feb 2021	4	3	0	7
Mar 2021	4	2	0	6
Apr 2021	5	3	0	8
May 2021	1	3	0	4
Jun 2021	4	0	4
Jul 2021	1	1	0	2
Aug 2021	2	1	0	3
Sep 2021	8	5	0	13
Oct 2021	4	12	0	16
Nov 2021	7	10	0	17
Dec 2021	4	1	0	5
Jan 2022	3	2	0	5
Feb 2022	4	2	1	7
Mar 2022	3	3	0	6
Apr 2022	1	3	0	4
May 2022	4	1	5
Jun 2022	3	1	0	4
Jul 2022	3	0	3
Aug 2022	5	2	0	7
Sep 2022	2	1	0	3
Oct 2022	5	0	5
Nov 2022	1	7	0	8
Dec 2022	6	0	6
Jan 2023	3	5	0	8
Feb 2023	5	1	0	6
Mar 2023	3	2	0	5
Apr 2023	6	4	0	10
May 2023	3	3	0	6
Jun 2023	6	1	1	8
Jul 2023	3	1	0	4
Aug 2023	2	4	1	7
Sep 2023	5	3	0	8
Oct 2023	4	4	0	8
Nov 2023	1	0	1
Dec 2023	5	1	0	6
Jan 2024	7	1	0	8
Feb 2024	5	2	1	8
Mar 2024	4	1	0	5
Apr 2024	12	3	5	20
May 2024	7	6	2	15
Jun 2024	41	2	2	45
Jul 2024	9	5	1	15
Aug 2024	30	1	2	33
Sep 2024	6	2	1	9
Oct 2024	9	4	0	13
Nov 2024	6	1	0	7
Dec 2024	1	1	0	2
Jan 2025	9	2	0	11
Feb 2025	18	7	0	25
Mar 2025	14	3	0	17
Apr 2025	7	2	1	10
May 2025	11	3	1	15
Jun 2025	25	5	0	30
Jul 2025	10	5	0	15
Aug 2025	10	4	1	15
Sep 2025	12	7	1	20
Oct 2025	20	9	2	31
Nov 2025	25	6	2	33
Dec 2025	14	8	3	25
Jan 2026	28	7	4	39
Feb 2026	13	9	1	23
Mar 2026	11	6	3	20
Apr 2026	0

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Feb 2013	6	9	6	21
Mar 2013	1	6	0	7
Apr 2013	1	7	0	8
May 2013	2	7	0	9
Jun 2013	3	7	0	10
Jul 2013	2	10	0	12
Aug 2013	9	4	0	13
Sep 2013	8	0	8
Oct 2013	4	9	0	13
Nov 2013	8	0	8
Dec 2013	1	5	0	6
Jan 2014	2	9	0	11
Feb 2014	3	8	1	12
Mar 2014	8	8	0	16
Apr 2014	1	9	0	10
May 2014	3	6	1	10
Jun 2014	2	7	2	11
Jul 2014	1	14	0	15
Aug 2014	6	9	1	16
Sep 2014	3	8	0	11
Oct 2014	2	7	0	9
Nov 2014	4	7	1	12
Dec 2014	1	9	1	11
Jan 2015	7	0	7
Feb 2015	6	0	6
Mar 2015	7	0	7
Apr 2015	10	2	0	12
May 2015	4	0	4
Jun 2015	23	1	0	24
Jul 2015	18	1	0	19
Aug 2015	5	6	0	11
Sep 2015	2	0	2
Oct 2015	13	2	0	15
Nov 2015	9	1	0	10
Dec 2015	2	2	0	4
Jan 2016	10	4	0	14
Feb 2016	6	3	0	9
Mar 2016	8	0	8
Apr 2016	7	2	0	9
May 2016	4	2	0	6
Jun 2016	4	1	0	5
Jul 2016	4	2	1	7
Aug 2016	4	2	0	6
Sep 2016	5	1	0	6
Oct 2016	3	0	3
Nov 2016	3	1	0	4
Dec 2016	3	0	3
Jan 2017	2	0	2
Feb 2017	2	0	2
Mar 2017	8	0	8
Apr 2017	11	4	1	16
May 2017	10	1	0	11
Jun 2017	9	1	0	10
Jul 2017	8	3	0	11
Aug 2017	6	3	2	11
Sep 2017	5	7	1	13
Oct 2017	4	4	1	9
Nov 2017	2	3	1	6
Dec 2017	4	5	2	11
Jan 2018	19	11	10	40
Feb 2018	7	5	1	13
Mar 2018	9	5	3	17
Apr 2018	9	7	4	20
May 2018	7	7	3	17
Jun 2018	12	6	4	22
Jul 2018	14	8	6	28
Aug 2018	13	7	4	24
Sep 2018	8	3	3	14
Oct 2018	14	7	6	27
Nov 2018	5	4	0	9
Dec 2018	11	2	2	15
Jan 2019	8	5	0	13
Feb 2019	13	5	1	19
Mar 2019	11	7	1	19
Apr 2019	11	3	1	15
May 2019	9	6	2	17
Jun 2019	1	4	1	6
Jul 2019	3	5	0	8
Aug 2019	2	2	0	4
Sep 2019	3	3	0	6
Oct 2019	3	6	0	9
Nov 2019	4	1	0	5
Dec 2019	2	5	0	7
Jan 2020	5	5	3	13
Feb 2020	5	2	0	7
Mar 2020	1	5	1	7
Apr 2020	4	0	4
May 2020	2	2	0	4
Jun 2020	12	6	0	18
Jul 2020	27	15	15	57
Aug 2020	5	6	3	14
Sep 2020	11	3	1	15
Oct 2020	6	9	0	15
Nov 2020	6	3	0	9
Dec 2020	10	5	0	15
Jan 2021	13	2	0	15
Feb 2021	4	3	0	7
Mar 2021	4	2	0	6
Apr 2021	5	3	0	8
May 2021	1	3	0	4
Jun 2021	4	0	4
Jul 2021	1	1	0	2
Aug 2021	2	1	0	3
Sep 2021	8	5	0	13
Oct 2021	4	12	0	16
Nov 2021	7	10	0	17
Dec 2021	4	1	0	5
Jan 2022	3	2	0	5
Feb 2022	4	2	1	7
Mar 2022	3	3	0	6
Apr 2022	1	3	0	4
May 2022	4	1	5
Jun 2022	3	1	0	4
Jul 2022	3	0	3
Aug 2022	5	2	0	7
Sep 2022	2	1	0	3
Oct 2022	5	0	5
Nov 2022	1	7	0	8
Dec 2022	6	0	6
Jan 2023	3	5	0	8
Feb 2023	5	1	0	6
Mar 2023	3	2	0	5
Apr 2023	6	4	0	10
May 2023	3	3	0	6
Jun 2023	6	1	1	8
Jul 2023	3	1	0	4
Aug 2023	2	4	1	7
Sep 2023	5	3	0	8
Oct 2023	4	4	0	8
Nov 2023	1	0	1
Dec 2023	5	1	0	6
Jan 2024	7	1	0	8
Feb 2024	5	2	1	8
Mar 2024	4	1	0	5
Apr 2024	12	3	5	20
May 2024	7	6	2	15
Jun 2024	41	2	2	45
Jul 2024	9	5	1	15
Aug 2024	30	1	2	33
Sep 2024	6	2	1	9
Oct 2024	9	4	0	13
Nov 2024	6	1	0	7
Dec 2024	1	1	0	2
Jan 2025	9	2	0	11
Feb 2025	18	7	0	25
Mar 2025	14	3	0	17
Apr 2025	7	2	1	10
May 2025	11	3	1	15
Jun 2025	25	5	0	30
Jul 2025	10	5	0	15
Aug 2025	10	4	1	15
Sep 2025	12	7	1	20
Oct 2025	20	9	2	31
Nov 2025	25	6	2	33
Dec 2025	14	8	3	25
Jan 2026	28	7	4	39
Feb 2026	13	9	1	23
Mar 2026	11	6	3	20
Apr 2026	0

Latest update: 03 Apr 2026