Theoretical and computational aspects of ensemble design, implementation, and interpretation in climate science (ESD/GMD/NPG inter-journal SI)(ESD/GMD/NPG inter-journal SI)
Theoretical and computational aspects of ensemble design, implementation, and interpretation in climate science (ESD/GMD/NPG inter-journal SI)(ESD/GMD/NPG inter-journal SI)
Editor(s): Francisco de Melo Viríssimo, Irina Tezaur, Eviatar Bach, David Stainforth, and Christian Franzke Special issue jointly organized between Earth System Dynamics, Geoscientific Model Development, and Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
The purpose of this special issue is to review and report on recent advances in the design, implementation, and interpretation of ensembles in climate science. This includes theoretical, mathematical, and computational aspects, therefore bringing together contributions from mathematicians, computational scientists, model users and developers, and climate scientists alike.

Climate science, in particular climate prediction and projection, are heavily dependent on the use of Earth system models (ESMs), which are nonlinear, complex, and chaotic representations of the Earth’s spheres. As such, ESMs are susceptible to various sources of uncertainty. These include uncertainty in the initial state, parameter values, model formulation, structure, and external forcing. Ensembles have become a key tool to quantify these uncertainties and improve predictions. However, challenging questions remain regarding how to design and interpret such ensembles within the constraints of limited computational power and the lack of a rigorous framework for their design. Therefore, this special issue will be a valuable resource to climate scientists working on both theoretical and practical aspects of prediction ahead of Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) and future assessments.

This issue arises from the minisymposium Theoretical and Computational Aspects of Ensemble Design and Interpretation in Climate Science and Modelling hosted during the SIAM Conference on Mathematical & Computational Issues in Geosciences in Bergen, Norway (19–22 June 2023). It will feature works by participants as well as external contributions.

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16 Oct 2023
On the spatial calibration of imperfect climate models
Saloua Peatier, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Laurent Terray
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2269,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2269, 2023
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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