Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-411-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-411-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 20 Oct 2025
| 20 Oct 2025
Quantifying variability in Lagrangian particle dispersal in ocean ensemble simulations: an information theory approach
Claudio M. Pierard
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
The Ocean Cleanup, Coolsingel 6, 3011 AD Rotterdam, the Netherlands
Siren Rühs
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW), Seestraße 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
Laura Gómez-Navarro
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Mediterranean Institute of Advanced Studies (IMEDEA, UIB-CSIC), Esporles, Spain
Michael Charles Denes
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Florian Meirer
Debye Institute for Nanomaterials Science, Inorganic Chemistry and Catalysis, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 3584 CG Utrecht, the Netherlands
Institute for Sustainable and Circular Chemistry, Inorganic Chemistry and Catalysis, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 3584 CG Utrecht, the Netherlands
Thierry Penduff
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Grenoble, France
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Alejandro Blazquez, Benoit Meyssignac, Robin Fraudeau, Michael Ablain, Jonathan Bamber, Antonio Bonaduce, Marie Bouih, Anny Cazenave, Thorben Döhne, Ines Dussaillant, Ramiro Ferrari, Martin Horwath, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Hugo Lecomte, Stephanie Leroux, William Llovel, Daniele Melini, Erwan Oulhen, Thierry Penduff, Roshin P. Raj, Giorgio Spada, Marius Schlaak, Papasarafianou Stamatia, Andrea Storto, Chunxue Yang, and Sarah Connors
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-627, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-627, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Closing the sea‑level budget on annual and longer time scales is a cornerstone of physical oceanography because sea‑level rise is one of the best indicators of climate change, and a closed budget shows we have identified and quantified all major drivers. We examined it from 1993 to 2022, finding an accelerated rise that matched ice melt and warm water until 2015. Afterwards an unexplained gap appears. Better deep‑ocean observations and refined gravity processing are needed to close the budget.
Niels Koppelaar, Christel van Eck, and Erik van Sebille
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3839, 2026
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Climate researchers are key in communicating the climate crisis, but most studies focus on university scientists. Little is known about those working in government organisations. We interviewed 14 Dutch climate scientists at government-funded institutes about opportunities and barriers to advocacy and activism, including concerns about civil servant roles, independence, institutional identity, and unclear rules.
Elena Gianotten, Meike F. Bos, Darshika Manral, Fabio Nauer, Erik Zettler, Lina A. Amaral-Zettler, and Erik van Sebille
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3097, 2026
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Widespread blooms of the seaweed Sargassum have caused large-scale inundation events in coastal Caribbean and African regions since 2011. Predicting the where these blooms appear, and how the Sargassum moves, depends on the interaction between ocean flow and biological growth. Here, we present a new computational framework for quick and easy simulation of Sargassum. The framework is particularly useful for testing the dependency of different growth models on the Sargassum fate.
Jean-Michel Brankart, Damien Héron, Lisa Weiss, Thierry Penduff, and Pierre Brasseur
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3237, 2026
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In this paper, a method is proposed to estimate directly the low-frequency component of the ocean variability from native observations using statistics from a prior long-term ensemble simulation. The approach is illustrated by the reconstruction of the low-frequency variability of the Mediterranean sea level. The resulting ensemble estimate is assessed against independent observations, showing good reliability.
Damien Héron, Thierry Penduff, Jean-Michel Brankart, Pierre Brasseur, Samuel Somot, Robin Waldman, and Romain Pennel
Ocean Sci., 22, 531–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-531-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-531-2026, 2026
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Our study used realistic ocean simulations to determine how much of the Mediterranean’s circulation is due to natural randomness rather than atmospheric forcing. We found that spontaneous ocean variability is strong in several regions and can persist for years or even decades. This randomness influences how well models and observations can capture the Mediterranean’s response to climate change.
Issufo Halo, Tarron Lamont, Michael Hart-Davis, Pierrick Penven, Isabelle Ansorge, Chris Reason, Bjorn Backeberg, Siren Rühs, Erik van Sebille, Christo Whittle, Annette Samuelsen, Johnny Johannessen, Tamaryn Morris, Marjolaine Krug, Juliet Hermes, Marek Ostrowski, Sheveenah Taukoor, and Babatunde Abiodun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6573, 2026
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This review synthesizes two decades of research on the Greater Agulhas Current System, a major ocean current influencing climate, weather and marine life around southern Africa and beyond. Using improved observations, satellites, and computer models, we show how this system transports properties between oceans, affects rainfall and climate patterns, and marine ecosystems. The findings highlight its global climate importance and the need for sustained monitoring to better predict future change.
Meike F. Bos, Irina I. Rypina, Larry J. Pratt, and Erik van Sebille
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-64, 2026
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Macroplastic items in the ocean can move differently than the water surrounding them, because their size and density are different than that of water. We investigate how to implement this effect for macroplastic items in simulations in the North West European Shelf region. For this region we find that the large drag force makes the macroplastics trajectories very closely follow the water itself, meaning that simulating macroplastic is simpler than previously expected.
Erik van Sebille, Celine Weel, Rens Vliegenthart, and Mark Bos
Geosci. Commun., 9, 69–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-9-69-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-9-69-2026, 2026
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Many climate scientists intuitively fear their credibility decreases when they engage in advocacy. We find that the opposite is the case. By surveying almost 1000 Dutch adults, we found that the credibility of a fictional climate scientists who wrote an article about the greening of gardens was higher when that text included advocacy statements, compared to when it was
neutral. This is because personalization increases the goodwill of readers for the academic who writes a text.
Jimena Medina-Rubio, Madlene Nussbaum, Ton S. van den Bremer, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 22, 49–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-49-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-49-2026, 2026
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We study how tides, wind, and waves interact at the ocean surface by tracking ultra-thin drifters released in the southern North Sea for two months. Using model data together with data-driven machine learning models, we determine the relative contribution of each forcing mechanism in driving the drifters' velocity and improve the prediction of their trajectories. We also test the generalisability of this method by applying it to the same drifters in the Tyrrhenian Sea.
Marc Emanuel Schneiter, Rolf Hut, and Erik Van Sebille
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6170, 2025
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We study land-water transitions of 24 small floating position-trackers that approximately mimic floating plastic litter. We describe how to automatically identify such transitions from recorded tracks, and we characterize our observations with respect to sea and wind conditions. The insights can be integrated in model simulations and used for the planning of beach cleanups. We released the trackers in the Wadden Sea, a shallow body of water that is strongly influenced by tides and wind.
Clément Ubelmann, J. Thomas Farrar, Bertrand Chapron, Lucile Gaultier, Laura Gomez-Navarro, Marie-Hélène Rio, and Gérald Dibarboure
Ocean Sci., 21, 2915–2928, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2915-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2915-2025, 2025
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This study models wind-driven ocean currents using observed wind stress and an empirically estimated impulse response function based on drifting buoys. By convolving this function with wind forcing from ERA5, the estimates align well with independent observations across latitudes. Additionally, the response function serves as a valuable indicator of subsurface properties.
Jenny M. Mørk, Tor Nordam, and Siren Rühs
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7831–7851, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7831-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7831-2025, 2025
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A common task in applied oceanography is to calculate the trajectories of floating objects in the ocean. We propose an alteration to some common numerical methods to improve their performance in such computations, and compare results with and without this alteration. This will help researchers to ensure they obtain a higher accuracy in their results without compromising on computer resources.
Aike Vonk, Mark Bos, and Erik van Sebille
Geosci. Commun., 8, 297–317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-8-297-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-8-297-2025, 2025
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Research institutes communicate scientific findings through press releases, which journalists use to write news articles. We examined how journalists use content from press releases about ocean plastic research. Our findings show that they closely follow the press releases story, primarily quoting involved scientists without seeking external perspectives. Causing the focus to stay on researchers, personalizing science rather than addressing the broader societal dimensions of plastic pollution.
Laura Gómez-Navarro, Maxime Ballarotta, Diego Cortés-Morales, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Laura Fortunato, Baptiste Mourre, and Ananda Pascual
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-17, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
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Understanding how the ocean moves heat, nutrients, and pollution is vital for climate studies and ecosystem health. We examined eddies in the western Mediterranean Sea using innovative satellite observations from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography mission. Compared to existing data, we detected major differences in eddy patterns. These advances improve our ability to monitor the ocean, manage marine pollution, and support sustainable maritime activities.
Vesna Bertoncelj, Furu Mienis, Paolo Stocchi, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 21, 945–964, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-945-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-945-2025, 2025
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This study explores ocean currents around Curaçao and how land-derived substances like pollutants and nutrients travel in the water. Most substances move northwest, following the main current, but at times, ocean eddies spread them in other directions. This movement may link polluted areas to pristine coral reefs, impacting marine ecosystems. Understanding these patterns helps inform conservation and pollution management around Curaçao.
Nieske Vergunst, Tugce Varol, and Erik van Sebille
Geosci. Commun., 8, 67–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-8-67-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-8-67-2025, 2025
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We developed and evaluated a board game about sea level rise to engage young adults. We found that the game positively influenced participants' perceptions of their impact on sea level rise, regardless of their prior familiarity with science. This study suggests that interactive and relatable activities can effectively engage audiences on climate issues, highlighting the potential for similar approaches in public science communication.
Mark V. Elbertsen, Erik van Sebille, and Peter K. Bijl
Clim. Past, 21, 441–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-441-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-441-2025, 2025
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This work verifies the remarkable finds of late Eocene Antarctic-sourced iceberg-rafted debris on the South Orkney Microcontinent. We find that these icebergs must have been on the larger end of the size scale compared to today’s icebergs due to faster melting in the warmer Eocene climate. The study was performed using a high-resolution model in which individual icebergs were followed through time.
Siren Rühs, Ton van den Bremer, Emanuela Clementi, Michael C. Denes, Aimie Moulin, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 21, 217–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-217-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-217-2025, 2025
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Simulating the transport of floating particles on the ocean surface is crucial for solving many societal issues. Here, we investigate how the representation of wind-generated surface waves impacts particle transport simulations. We find that different wave-driven processes can alter transport patterns and that commonly adopted approximations are not always adequate. This suggests that ideally coupled ocean–wave models should be used for surface particle transport simulations.
Lara Börger, Michael Schindelegger, Mengnan Zhao, Rui M. Ponte, Anno Löcher, Bernd Uebbing, Jean-Marc Molines, and Thierry Penduff
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 75–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-75-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-75-2025, 2025
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Flows in the ocean are driven either by atmospheric forces or by small-scale internal disturbances that are inherently chaotic. We use computer simulation results to show that these chaotic oceanic disturbances can attain spatial scales large enough to alter the motion of Earth's pole of rotation. Given their size and unpredictable nature, the chaotic signals are a source of uncertainty when interpreting observed year-to-year polar motion changes in terms of other processes in the Earth system.
Olivier Narinc, Thierry Penduff, Guillaume Maze, Stéphanie Leroux, and Jean-Marc Molines
Ocean Sci., 20, 1351–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1351-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1351-2024, 2024
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This study examines how the ocean's chaotic variability and atmospheric fluctuations affect yearly changes in North Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) properties, using an ensemble of realistic ocean simulations. Results show that while yearly changes in STMW properties are mostly paced by the atmosphere, a notable part of these changes are random in phase. This study also illustrates the value of ensemble simulations over single runs in understanding oceanic fluctuations and their causes.
Anna Leerink, Mark Bos, Daan Reijnders, and Erik van Sebille
Geosci. Commun., 7, 201–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-201-2024, 2024
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Climate scientists who communicate to a broad audience may be reluctant to write in a more personal style, as they assume that it hurts their credibility. To test this assumption, we asked 100 Dutch people to rate the credibility of a climate scientist. We varied how the author of the article addressed the reader and found that the degree of personalization did not have a measurable impact on the credibility of the author. Thus, we conclude that personalization may not hurt credibility.
Frances Wijnen, Madelijn Strick, Mark Bos, and Erik van Sebille
Geosci. Commun., 7, 91–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-91-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-91-2024, 2024
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Climate scientists are urged to communicate climate science; there is very little evidence about what types of communication work well for which audiences. We have performed a systematic literature review to analyze what is known about the efficacy of climate communication by scientists. While we have found more than 60 articles in the last 10 years about climate communication activities by scientists, only 7 of these included some form of evaluation of the impact of the activity.
Philippe F. V. W. Frankemölle, Peter D. Nooteboom, Joe Scutt Phillips, Lauriane Escalle, Simon Nicol, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 20, 31–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-31-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-31-2024, 2024
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Tuna fisheries in the Pacific often use drifting fish aggregating devices (dFADs) to attract fish that are advected by subsurface flow through underwater appendages. Using a particle advection model, we find that virtual particles advected by surface flow are displaced farther than virtual dFADs. We find a relation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and circular motion in some areas, influencing dFAD densities. This information helps us to understand processes that drive dFAD distribution.
Tor Nordam, Ruben Kristiansen, Raymond Nepstad, Erik van Sebille, and Andy M. Booth
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5339–5363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5339-2023, 2023
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We describe and compare two common methods, Eulerian and Lagrangian models, used to simulate the vertical transport of material in the ocean. They both solve the same transport problems but use different approaches for representing the underlying equations on the computer. The main focus of our study is on the numerical accuracy of the two approaches. Our results should be useful for other researchers creating or using these types of transport models.
Stephanie Leroux, Jean-Michel Brankart, Aurélie Albert, Laurent Brodeau, Jean-Marc Molines, Quentin Jamet, Julien Le Sommer, Thierry Penduff, and Pierre Brasseur
Ocean Sci., 18, 1619–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1619-2022, 2022
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The goal of the study is to evaluate the predictability of the ocean circulation
at a kilometric scale, in order to anticipate the requirements of the future operational forecasting systems. For that purpose, ensemble experiments have been performed with a regional model for the Western Mediterranean (at 1/60° horizontal resolution). From these ensemble experiments, we show that it is possible to compute targeted predictability scores, which depend on initial and model uncertainties.
Alan D. Fox, Patricia Handmann, Christina Schmidt, Neil Fraser, Siren Rühs, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Torge Martin, Marilena Oltmanns, Clare Johnson, Willi Rath, N. Penny Holliday, Arne Biastoch, Stuart A. Cunningham, and Igor Yashayaev
Ocean Sci., 18, 1507–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, 2022
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Observations of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic in the 2010s show exceptional freshening and cooling of the upper ocean, peaking in 2016 with the lowest salinities recorded for 120 years. Using results from a high-resolution ocean model, supported by observations, we propose that the leading cause is reduced surface cooling over the preceding decade in the Labrador Sea, leading to increased outflow of less dense water and so to freshening and cooling of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic.
Stefanie L. Ypma, Quinten Bohte, Alexander Forryan, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Andy Donnelly, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 18, 1477–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1477-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1477-2022, 2022
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In this research we aim to improve cleanup efforts on the Galapagos Islands of marine plastic debris when resources are limited and the distribution of the plastic on shorelines is unknown. Using a network that describes the flow of macroplastic between the islands we have identified the most efficient cleanup locations, quantified the impact of targeting these locations and showed that shorelines where the plastic is unlikely to leave are likely efficient cleanup locations.
Jens Zinke, Takaaki K. Watanabe, Siren Rühs, Miriam Pfeiffer, Stefan Grab, Dieter Garbe-Schönberg, and Arne Biastoch
Clim. Past, 18, 1453–1474, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1453-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1453-2022, 2022
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Salinity is an important and integrative measure of changes to the water cycle steered by changes to the balance between rainfall and evaporation and by vertical and horizontal movements of water parcels by ocean currents. However, salinity measurements in our oceans are extremely sparse. To fill this gap, we have developed a 334-year coral record of seawater oxygen isotopes that reflects salinity changes in the globally important Agulhas Current system and reveals its main oceanic drivers.
Reint Fischer, Delphine Lobelle, Merel Kooi, Albert Koelmans, Victor Onink, Charlotte Laufkötter, Linda Amaral-Zettler, Andrew Yool, and Erik van Sebille
Biogeosciences, 19, 2211–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2211-2022, 2022
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Since current estimates show that only about 1 % of the all plastic that enters the ocean is floating at the surface, we look at subsurface processes that can cause vertical movement of (micro)plastic. We investigate how modelled algal attachment and the ocean's vertical movement can cause particles to sink and oscillate in the open ocean. Particles can sink to depths of > 5000 m in regions with high wind intensity and mainly remain close to the surface with low winds and biological activity.
Victor Onink, Erik van Sebille, and Charlotte Laufkötter
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1995–2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1995-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1995-2022, 2022
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Turbulent mixing is a vital process in 3D modeling of particle transport in the ocean. However, since turbulence occurs on very short spatial scales and timescales, large-scale ocean models generally have highly simplified turbulence representations. We have developed parametrizations for the vertical turbulent transport of buoyant particles that can be easily applied in a large-scale particle tracking model. The predicted vertical concentration profiles match microplastic observations well.
Mikael L. A. Kaandorp, Stefanie L. Ypma, Marijke Boonstra, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 18, 269–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-269-2022, 2022
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A large amount of marine litter, such as plastics, is located on or around beaches. Both the total amount of this litter and its transport are poorly understood. We investigate this by training a machine learning model with data of cleanup efforts on Dutch beaches between 2014 and 2019, obtained by about 14 000 volunteers. We find that Dutch beaches contain up to 30 000 kg of litter, largely depending on tides, oceanic transport, and how exposed the beaches are.
Peter D. Nooteboom, Peter K. Bijl, Christian Kehl, Erik van Sebille, Martin Ziegler, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 357–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, 2022
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Having descended through the water column, microplankton in ocean sediments represents the ocean surface environment and is used as an archive of past and present surface oceanographic conditions. However, this microplankton is advected by turbulent ocean currents during its sinking journey. We use simulations of sinking particles to define ocean bottom provinces and detect these provinces in datasets of sedimentary microplankton, which has implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions.
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Short summary
Particle-tracking simulations compute how ocean currents transport material. However, initializing these simulations is often ad hoc. Here, we explore how two different strategies (releasing particles over space or over time) compare. Specifically, we compare the variability in particle trajectories to the variability of particles computed in a 50-member ensemble simulation. We find that releasing the particles over 20 weeks gives variability that is most like that in the ensemble.
Particle-tracking simulations compute how ocean currents transport material. However,...
