Articles | Volume 31, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-247-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Evaluation of forecasts by a global data-driven weather model with and without probabilistic post-processing at Norwegian stations
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- Final revised paper (published on 25 Jun 2024)
- Preprint (discussion started on 08 Dec 2023)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2838', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Jan 2024
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', John Bjørnar Bremnes, 31 Jan 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2838', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Apr 2024
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', John Bjørnar Bremnes, 19 Apr 2024
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RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2838', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Apr 2024
- AC3: 'Reply on RC3', John Bjørnar Bremnes, 19 Apr 2024
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by John Bjørnar Bremnes on behalf of the Authors (30 Apr 2024)
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ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (06 May 2024) by Zoltan Toth
AR by John Bjørnar Bremnes on behalf of the Authors (14 May 2024)
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Over the past two years, there has been rapid and unprecedented progress in data-driven, AI-based models for weather prediction. The paper evaluates the forecast quality of Pangu-Weather, a state-of-the-art AI weather model, and two physics-based NWP models: the ECMWF ensemble, and MEPS, a high-resolution limited area model. The forecasts are compared based on temperature and wind speed data from observation stations in Norway. Overall, the authors find that the unprocessed forecasts of the MEPS model are superior to those of the ECMWF ensemble and the Pangu-Weather model (which perform similarly). After post-processing, the relative differences in terms of the evaluation metrics are much smaller, with slight advantages for the post-processed MEPS forecasts.
In my view, the paper is timely and addresses interesting and important research questions given the recent rise in data-driven weather forecasting. The two main contributions are that
General comments: