Articles | Volume 31, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-247-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-247-2024
Research article
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25 Jun 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 25 Jun 2024

Evaluation of forecasts by a global data-driven weather model with and without probabilistic post-processing at Norwegian stations

John Bjørnar Bremnes, Thomas N. Nipen, and Ivar A. Seierstad

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2838', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Jan 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', John Bjørnar Bremnes, 31 Jan 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2838', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Apr 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', John Bjørnar Bremnes, 19 Apr 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2838', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Apr 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', John Bjørnar Bremnes, 19 Apr 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by John Bjørnar Bremnes on behalf of the Authors (30 Apr 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (06 May 2024) by Zoltan Toth
AR by John Bjørnar Bremnes on behalf of the Authors (14 May 2024)  Manuscript 
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Executive editor
This is a timely paper given the recent rise in data-driven and AI-based weather forecasting. It offers two key contributions. First, the paper provides (potentially the first, but at least one of the first) comparisons of AI-based and physics-based weather forecasting models based on station data (rather than the commonly used comparisons based on gridded ERA5 data). And second, the paper assesses and quantifies the effect of statistical post-processing on forecasts from AI-based weather models, which may also be the first of its kind.
Short summary
During the last 2 years, tremendous progress has been made in global data-driven weather models trained on reanalysis data. In this study, the Pangu-Weather model is compared to several numerical weather prediction models with and without probabilistic post-processing for temperature and wind speed forecasting. The results confirm that global data-driven models are promising for operational weather forecasting and that post-processing can improve these forecasts considerably.