Articles | Volume 30, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-481-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-481-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
03 Nov 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 03 Nov 2023
| 03 Nov 2023
Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics
Ulrike Feudel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Chemistry and Biology for the Marine Environment, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany
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Cited
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Relay synchronization and control of dynamics in multiplex networks with unidirectional interlayer coupling A. Vadakkan & G. Ambika https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2025.134715
- Time-series-analysis-based detection of critical transitions in real-world non-autonomous systems K. Lehnertz https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0214733
- Early warnings of the transition to a superrotating atmospheric state M. Williamson & T. Lenton https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1483-2024
- Bifurcation delay in nonlinear systems with time-scaling D. Rawat et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0266598
- Effects of the chaotic saddles on critical transitions in a piecewise linear oscillator subjected to parameter drift H. Su et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2026.118338
- Coupled catastrophes in systems with bidirectional feedback L. Cothren et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0304020
- Evaluating model uncertainty in critical threshold estimations from time series data: application to the Atlantic meridional Overturning Circulation A. Cotronei et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2026.1761461
- Criticality governs response dynamics and entrainment of periodically forced ghost cycles D. Koch et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/3d9z-qrb1
- Rate-induced biosphere collapse in the Daisyworld model C. Arnscheidt & H. Alkhayuon https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0240983
- Partial tipping in bistable ecological systems under periodic environmental variability A. Basak et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0215157
- Emergence of a tipping subnetwork during a critical transition in networked systems: A new avenue to extreme events T. Bröhl & K. Lehnertz https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.7.023109
- Power-law behavior around bifurcation points of 1D maps: A supertracks approach J. Polli et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0233615
- Rate-induced tipping in savanna–forest ecosystems: effects of fast-varying fitness parameters in the framework of compactification R. Kumar K & P. Dutta https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2025.0803
- When do multiple pulses of environmental variation trigger tipping in an ecological system? A. Basak et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0205410
- Phase lag-driven indirect tipping in a seasonally forced coupled ecological system A. Basak et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ae76af
- Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations S. Loriani et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025
- Global phase-space approach to rate-induced tipping: A brief review S. Panahi & Y. Lai https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0226420
- Generalized paradox of enrichment: noise-driven rare rarity in degraded ecological systems S. Panahi et al. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2025.0087
- Tipping, Nonlinear Feedback, and Bistability in a Cubic Energy Balance Model B. Shen https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127426501257
- Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk C. Arnscheidt et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2025.20
- Initial condition uncertainty exerts a large and persistent influence on model simulations of ecosystem carbon dynamics in California P. Selmants et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-664X/ae565f
- Bifurcation, Tipping, and Regime Shifts in Nonlinear Energy-Balance Models B. Shen https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127426300144
- The effect of CO 2 ramping rate on the transient weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation C. Hankel https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2411357121
- Unconventional tipping and wrinkled hysteresis loop in nonsmooth biophysical systems Y. Kang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2025.117099
- Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly R. Radhakrishnan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06525-5
- Regime switching in coupled nonlinear systems: Sources, prediction, and control—Minireview and perspective on the Focus Issue I. Franović et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0247498
- Tipping detection using climate networks L. Moinat et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0230848
- Recovery of synchronized oscillations on multiplex networks by tuning dynamical time scales A. Vadakkan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2024.129842
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Relay synchronization and control of dynamics in multiplex networks with unidirectional interlayer coupling A. Vadakkan & G. Ambika https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2025.134715
- Time-series-analysis-based detection of critical transitions in real-world non-autonomous systems K. Lehnertz https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0214733
- Early warnings of the transition to a superrotating atmospheric state M. Williamson & T. Lenton https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1483-2024
- Bifurcation delay in nonlinear systems with time-scaling D. Rawat et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0266598
- Effects of the chaotic saddles on critical transitions in a piecewise linear oscillator subjected to parameter drift H. Su et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2026.118338
- Coupled catastrophes in systems with bidirectional feedback L. Cothren et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0304020
- Evaluating model uncertainty in critical threshold estimations from time series data: application to the Atlantic meridional Overturning Circulation A. Cotronei et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2026.1761461
- Criticality governs response dynamics and entrainment of periodically forced ghost cycles D. Koch et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/3d9z-qrb1
- Rate-induced biosphere collapse in the Daisyworld model C. Arnscheidt & H. Alkhayuon https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0240983
- Partial tipping in bistable ecological systems under periodic environmental variability A. Basak et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0215157
- Emergence of a tipping subnetwork during a critical transition in networked systems: A new avenue to extreme events T. Bröhl & K. Lehnertz https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.7.023109
- Power-law behavior around bifurcation points of 1D maps: A supertracks approach J. Polli et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0233615
- Rate-induced tipping in savanna–forest ecosystems: effects of fast-varying fitness parameters in the framework of compactification R. Kumar K & P. Dutta https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2025.0803
- When do multiple pulses of environmental variation trigger tipping in an ecological system? A. Basak et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0205410
- Phase lag-driven indirect tipping in a seasonally forced coupled ecological system A. Basak et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ae76af
- Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations S. Loriani et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025
- Global phase-space approach to rate-induced tipping: A brief review S. Panahi & Y. Lai https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0226420
- Generalized paradox of enrichment: noise-driven rare rarity in degraded ecological systems S. Panahi et al. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2025.0087
- Tipping, Nonlinear Feedback, and Bistability in a Cubic Energy Balance Model B. Shen https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127426501257
- Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk C. Arnscheidt et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2025.20
- Initial condition uncertainty exerts a large and persistent influence on model simulations of ecosystem carbon dynamics in California P. Selmants et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-664X/ae565f
- Bifurcation, Tipping, and Regime Shifts in Nonlinear Energy-Balance Models B. Shen https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127426300144
- The effect of CO 2 ramping rate on the transient weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation C. Hankel https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2411357121
- Unconventional tipping and wrinkled hysteresis loop in nonsmooth biophysical systems Y. Kang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2025.117099
- Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly R. Radhakrishnan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06525-5
- Regime switching in coupled nonlinear systems: Sources, prediction, and control—Minireview and perspective on the Focus Issue I. Franović et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0247498
- Tipping detection using climate networks L. Moinat et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0230848
- Recovery of synchronized oscillations on multiplex networks by tuning dynamical time scales A. Vadakkan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2024.129842
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 17 Jun 2026
Editorial statement
This study suggests a necessary shift in the paradigm of nonlinear dynamical systems analysis in climate science, ecology, and beyond. The author delves into a relatively unexplored facet of critical transitions, which is of great importance in examples within the Earth and environmental sciences. In particular, she explains mechanisms based on these ideas in examples of systems that describe population dynamics and climate transitions.
This study suggests a necessary shift in the paradigm of nonlinear dynamical systems analysis in...
Short summary
Many systems in nature are characterized by the coexistence of different stable states for given environmental parameters and external forcing. Examples can be found in different fields of science, ranging from ecosystems to climate dynamics. Perturbations can lead to critical transitions (tipping) from one stable state to another. The study of these transitions requires the development of new methodological approaches that allow for modeling, analyzing and predicting them.
Many systems in nature are characterized by the coexistence of different stable states for given...
