Ensemble variational assimilation as a probabilistic estimator – Part 1: The linear and weak non-linear case

Abstract. Data assimilation is considered as a problem in Bayesian estimation, viz. determine the probability distribution for the state of the observed system, conditioned by the available data. In the linear and additive Gaussian case, a Monte Carlo sample of the Bayesian probability distribution (which is Gaussian and known explicitly) can be obtained by a simple procedure: perturb the data according to the probability distribution of their own errors, and perform an assimilation on the perturbed data. The performance of that approach, called here ensemble variational assimilation (EnsVAR), also known as ensemble of data assimilations (EDA), is studied in this two-part paper on the non-linear low-dimensional Lorenz-96 chaotic system, with the assimilation being performed by the standard variational procedure. In this first part, EnsVAR is implemented first, for reference, in a linear and Gaussian case, and then in a weakly non-linear case (assimilation over 5 days of the system). The performances of the algorithm, considered either as a probabilistic or a deterministic estimator, are very similar in the two cases. Additional comparison shows that the performance of EnsVAR is better, both in the assimilation and forecast phases, than that of standard algorithms for the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and particle filter (PF), although at a higher cost. Globally similar results are obtained with the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky (K–S) equation.