Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1159-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1159-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
Research article
 | 
01 Dec 2014
Research article |  | 01 Dec 2014

An improved ARIMA model for precipitation simulations

H. R. Wang, C. Wang, X. Lin, and J. Kang

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Short summary
This paper presents an improvement on the conventional ARIMA model for precipitation time-series forecast. The precipitation time series of 12 months is first classified into several clusters. The maxima, minima, and truncation means of each cluster are then predicted using the improved ARIMA models, which are further used to predict the monthly precipitation through a set of regression models. A case study demonstrates that the present approach could increase the forecast accuracy by 21%.
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