Shallow seismicity in the area of Greece: its character as seen by means of a stochastic model

Abstract. Occurrence of successive earthquake events in space is analysed by means of semi-stochastic processes. The analysis employs earthquakes events with M > 5.2 from the area of Greece and its surroundings (18-31° E, 34-43° N) for the time interval 1911-1985. The sequence of earthquake occurrences can be only marginally described by a first order Markov chain model. Substitutability analysis incorporates the results of Markov Chains, revealing, though, detailed interrelations of parts (subareas) of the study area, not appreciated in Markov Chain analysis. Reactivation of particular subareas provides an insight into the level of interaction between neighbouring seismogenic sources within a subarea. The earthquake occurrence pattern provides evidence for the effect of a significant stress diffusion through time in the sense of a stress front. Taking into account the limitations of the methodologies applied, results indicate the importance of large-scale monitoring of seismicity, which assist in the identification of particular characteristics of the earthquake occurrence in space and time.