Bifurcation analysis of a paradigmatic model of monsoon prediction
- 1M. N. Saha Centre of Space Studies, Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, India
- 2K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, India
- 3Department of Physics, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, India
Abstract. Local and global bifurcation structure of the forced Lorenz model in the r-F plane is investigated. The forced Lorenz model is a conceptual model for understanding the influence of the slowly varying boundary forcing like Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability. Shift in the probability density function between the two branches of the Lorenz attractor as a function of SST forcing is calculated. It is found that the one-dimensional return map (cusp map) splits into two cusps on introduction of forcing.