Articles | Volume 12, issue 5
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 707–715, 2005
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-12-707-2005
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 707–715, 2005
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-12-707-2005

  18 Jul 2005

18 Jul 2005

Bifurcation analysis of a paradigmatic model of monsoon prediction

A. Kumar Mittal1,2,3, S. Dwivedi1,2,3, and A. Chandra Pandey1,2,3 A. Kumar Mittal et al.
  • 1M. N. Saha Centre of Space Studies, Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, India
  • 2K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, India
  • 3Department of Physics, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, India

Abstract. Local and global bifurcation structure of the forced Lorenz model in the r-F plane is investigated. The forced Lorenz model is a conceptual model for understanding the influence of the slowly varying boundary forcing like Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability. Shift in the probability density function between the two branches of the Lorenz attractor as a function of SST forcing is calculated. It is found that the one-dimensional return map (cusp map) splits into two cusps on introduction of forcing.