NPG Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics NPG Nonlin. Processes Geophys. 1607-7946 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/npg-12-707-2005 Bifurcation analysis of a paradigmatic model of monsoon prediction Kumar Mittal A. 1 2 3 Dwivedi S. 1 2 3 Chandra Pandey A. 1 2 3 M. N. Saha Centre of Space Studies, Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, India K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, India Department of Physics, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, India 18 07 2005 12 5 707 715 Copyright: © 2005 A. Kumar Mittal et al. 2005 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Generic License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ This article is available from https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/12/707/2005/npg-12-707-2005.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/12/707/2005/npg-12-707-2005.pdf

Local and global bifurcation structure of the forced Lorenz model in the <i>r-F</i> plane is investigated. The forced Lorenz model is a conceptual model for understanding the influence of the slowly varying boundary forcing like Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability. Shift in the probability density function between the two branches of the Lorenz attractor as a function of SST forcing is calculated. It is found that the one-dimensional return map (cusp map) splits into two cusps on introduction of forcing.