Articles | Volume 8, issue 6
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 8, 341–345, 2001
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-8-341-2001

Special issue: Quantifying Predictability

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 8, 341–345, 2001
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-8-341-2001

  31 Dec 2001

31 Dec 2001

Probing the linearity and nonlinearity in the transitions of the atmospheric circulation

A. A. Tsonis A. A. Tsonis
  • Dept. of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences Group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, USA

Abstract. In this paper, we apply the principles of information theory that relate to the definition of nonlinear predictability, which is a measure that describes both the linear and nonlinear components of a system. By comparing this measure to a measure of linear predictability, one can assess whether a given system has a strong nonlinear or a strong linear component. This provides insights as to whether the system should be modelled by a nonlinear model or by a linear model. We apply these ideas to a known dynamical system and to a time series that describe the transitions in atmospheric circulation.