Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 17, 85–91, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-85-2010
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 17, 85–91, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-85-2010

  24 Feb 2010

24 Feb 2010

Variable predictability in deterministic dissipative sandpile

M. G. Shnirman1,3 and A. B. Shapoval2,3 M. G. Shnirman and A. B. Shapoval
  • 1Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, UMR 7154, CNRS, France
  • 2Finance Academy under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russia
  • 3International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russia

Abstract. It is known that some quiescence precedes the strong events in the Bak–Tang–Wiesenfeld sand-pile (Pepke and Carlson, 1994) We introduce dissipation depending on the propagation of the events into this model such that in the constructed model the growth of activity occurs before the strong events. This fact allows the prediction of them in advance with a certain efficiency. This efficiency is variable in time. The best predictability is observed during subcritical time ranges, while the efficiency is definitely worse in the supercritical state.

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