Journal cover Journal topic
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 1.558 IF 1.558
  • IF 5-year value: 1.475 IF 5-year
    1.475
  • CiteScore value: 2.8 CiteScore
    2.8
  • SNIP value: 0.921 SNIP 0.921
  • IPP value: 1.56 IPP 1.56
  • SJR value: 0.571 SJR 0.571
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 55 Scimago H
    index 55
  • h5-index value: 22 h5-index 22
Volume 17, issue 1
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 17, 85–91, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-85-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 17, 85–91, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-85-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  24 Feb 2010

24 Feb 2010

Variable predictability in deterministic dissipative sandpile

M. G. Shnirman1,3 and A. B. Shapoval2,3 M. G. Shnirman and A. B. Shapoval
  • 1Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, UMR 7154, CNRS, France
  • 2Finance Academy under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russia
  • 3International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russia

Abstract. It is known that some quiescence precedes the strong events in the Bak–Tang–Wiesenfeld sand-pile (Pepke and Carlson, 1994) We introduce dissipation depending on the propagation of the events into this model such that in the constructed model the growth of activity occurs before the strong events. This fact allows the prediction of them in advance with a certain efficiency. This efficiency is variable in time. The best predictability is observed during subcritical time ranges, while the efficiency is definitely worse in the supercritical state.

Publications Copernicus
Download
Citation