11 Aug 2005
11 Aug 2005
Prediction of magnetic storm events using the Dst index
V. V. Anh1,2, Z. G. Yu1, J. A. Wanliss3, and S. M. Watson2
V. V. Anh et al.
V. V. Anh1,2, Z. G. Yu1, J. A. Wanliss3, and S. M. Watson2
- 1Program in Statistics and Operations Research, Queensland University of Technology , GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Q4001, Australia
- 2Florida Space Institute, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida 32816-2370, USA
- 3Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 600 S. Clyde Morris Blvd., Daytona Beach, Florida, 32114, USA
- 1Program in Statistics and Operations Research, Queensland University of Technology , GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Q4001, Australia
- 2Florida Space Institute, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida 32816-2370, USA
- 3Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 600 S. Clyde Morris Blvd., Daytona Beach, Florida, 32114, USA
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Abstract. This paper provides a method to predict magnetic storm events based on the time series of the Dst index over the period 1981-2002. This method is based on the multiple scaling of the measure representation of the Dst time series. This measure is modeled as a recurrent iterated function system, which leads to a method to predict storm patterns included in its attractor. Numerical results are provided to evaluate the performance of the method in outside-sample forecasts.
