Prediction of magnetic storm events using the Dst index
- 1Program in Statistics and Operations Research, Queensland University of Technology , GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Q4001, Australia
- 2Florida Space Institute, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida 32816-2370, USA
- 3Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 600 S. Clyde Morris Blvd., Daytona Beach, Florida, 32114, USA
Abstract. This paper provides a method to predict magnetic storm events based on the time series of the Dst index over the period 1981-2002. This method is based on the multiple scaling of the measure representation of the Dst time series. This measure is modeled as a recurrent iterated function system, which leads to a method to predict storm patterns included in its attractor. Numerical results are provided to evaluate the performance of the method in outside-sample forecasts.