Statistical characteristics of irreversible predictability time in regional ocean models
- 1Naval Ocean Analysis and Prediction Laboratory Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California, USA
- 2Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Sevastopol, Ukraine
Abstract. Probabilistic aspects of regional ocean model predictability is analyzed using the probability density function (PDF) of the irreversible predictability time (IPT) (called τ-PDF) computed from an unconstrained ensemble of stochastic perturbations in initial conditions, winds, and open boundary conditions. Two-attractors (a chaotic attractor and a small-amplitude stable limit cycle) are found in the wind-driven circulation. Relationship between attractor's residence time and IPT determines the τ-PDF for the short (up to several weeks) and intermediate (up to two months) predictions. The τ-PDF is usually non-Gaussian but not multi-modal for red-noise perturbations in initial conditions and perturbations in the wind and open boundary conditions. Bifurcation of τ-PDF occurs as the tolerance level varies. Generally, extremely successful predictions (corresponding to the τ-PDF's tail toward large IPT domain) are not outliers and share the same statistics as a whole ensemble of predictions.