Articles | Volume 13, issue 5
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 13, 585–593, 2006
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-13-585-2006
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 13, 585–593, 2006
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-13-585-2006

  31 Oct 2006

31 Oct 2006

Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times

J. R. Holliday1,2, J. B. Rundle1,2, K. F. Tiampo3, and D. L. Turcotte4 J. R. Holliday et al.
  • 1Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, USA
  • 2Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, USA
  • 3Department of Earth Sciences, University of Western Ontario, Canada
  • 4Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, USA

Abstract. It is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence are just some of the patterns recognized by seismologists. Using the Pattern Informatics technique along with relative intensity analysis, we create a scoring method based on time dependent relative operating characteristic diagrams and show that the occurrences of large earthquakes in California correlate with time intervals where fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering. Furthermore, we show that the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other parts of the world.