Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 11, 119–125, 2004
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-119-2004

Special issue: Dedicated to Prof. A. D. Kirwan Jr. on the occasion of his...

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 11, 119–125, 2004
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-119-2004

  25 Feb 2004

25 Feb 2004

Non-linear analysis of geomagnetic time series from Etna volcano

G. Currenti1, C. Del Negro1, L. Fortuna2, R. Napoli1, and A. Vicari1,2 G. Currenti et al.
  • 1Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – Sezione di Catania, Italy
  • 2Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettrica, Elettronica e dei Sistemi – Universit` a di Catania, Italy

Abstract. An intensive nonlinear analysis of geomagnetic time series from the magnetic network on Etna volcano was carried out to investigate the dynamical behavior of magnetic anomalies in volcanic areas. The short-term predictability of the geomagnetic time series was evaluated to establish a possible low-dimensional deterministic dynamics. We estimated the predictive ability of both a nonlinear forecasting technique and a global autoregressive model by comparing the prediction errors. Our findings highlight that volcanomagnetic signals are the result of complex processes that cannot easily be predicted. There is slight evidence based on nonlinear predictions, that the geomagnetic time series are to be governed by many variables, whose time evolution could be better regarded as arising from complex high dimensional processes.