Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 1, 41–44, 1994
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994

Special issue: Including papers presented at the AGU Chapman Conference on...

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 1, 41–44, 1994
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994

  31 Mar 1994

31 Mar 1994

Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere

J. B. Elsner1 and A. A. Tsonis2 J. B. Elsner and A. A. Tsonis
  • 1Dept. of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
  • 2Dept. of Geosciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA

Abstract. A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.