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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 1, issue 1
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 1, 41–44, 1994
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994
© Author(s) 1994. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

Special issue: Including papers presented at the AGU Chapman Conference on...

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 1, 41–44, 1994
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-1-41-1994
© Author(s) 1994. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

  31 Mar 1994

31 Mar 1994

Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere

J. B. Elsner1 and A. A. Tsonis2 J. B. Elsner and A. A. Tsonis
  • 1Dept. of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
  • 2Dept. of Geosciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA

Abstract. A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

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