Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2022-15
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2022-15
 
19 Oct 2022
19 Oct 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NPG.

The Role of Internal Variability in Regional Climate Change

Clara Deser and Adam S. Phillips Clara Deser and Adam S. Phillips
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA

Abstract. Disentangling the effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate change remains a key challenge with far-reaching implications. Due to its largely unpredictable nature on timescales longer than a decade, internal climate variability limits the accuracy of climate model projections, introduces challenges in attributing past climate changes, and complicates climate model evaluation. Here, we highlight recent advances in climate modeling and physical understanding that have led to novel insights on these key issues. In particular, we synthesize new findings from Large Ensemble simulations with Earth System Models, Observational Large Ensembles, and “dynamical adjustment” methodologies, with a focus on European climate.

Clara Deser and Adam S. Phillips

Status: open (until 14 Dec 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on npg-2022-15', Tamas Bodai, 19 Oct 2022 reply
    • RC2: 'Reply on RC1', Tamas Bodai, 30 Oct 2022 reply
      • CC2: 'Reply on RC2 -- what constitutes internal climate variability?', Paul PUKITE, 22 Nov 2022 reply
        • RC3: 'Reply on CC2', Tamas Bodai, 23 Nov 2022 reply
          • CC3: 'Reply on RC3', Paul PUKITE, 23 Nov 2022 reply
  • CC1: 'Comment on npg-2022-15', Gabor Drotos, 07 Nov 2022 reply

Clara Deser and Adam S. Phillips

Clara Deser and Adam S. Phillips

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Short summary
Past and future climate change at regional scales is a result of both human influences and natural (internal) variability. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in climate modeling and physical understanding that has led to new insights into their respective roles, illustrated with original results for European climate. Our findings highlight the confounding role of internal variability in attribution, climate model evaluation and accuracy of future projections.