the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Leading the Lorenz-63 system toward the prescribed regime by model predictive control coupled with data assimilation
Abstract. In recent years, concerns have been raised regarding the intensification and increase of extreme weather events such as torrential rainfall and typhoons. To mitigate the damage caused by weather-induced disasters, recent studies have started developing weather control technologies to lead the weather to a desirable direction with feasible manipulations. This study proposes introducing the model predictive control (MPC), an advanced control method explored in control engineering, into the framework of the control simulation experiment (CSE). In contrast to previous CSE studies, the proposed method explicitly considers physical constraints such as the maximum allowable manipulations within the cost function of the MPC. As the first step toward applying the MPC to real weather control, this study performed a series of MPC experiments with the Lorenz-63 model. Our results showed that the Lorenz-63 system can be led to the positive regime with control inputs determined by the MPC. Furthermore, the MPC significantly reduced necessary forecast length compared to earlier CSE studies. It was beneficial to select a member showing a larger regime shift for the initial state when dealing with uncertainty in initial states.
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RC1: 'Comment on npg-2024-4', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Mar 2024
The manuscript put the ideas that have been suggested by Miyoshi and Sun (2022) into a more robust optimal control formulation, although there is no reference to optimal control theory but their terminology is used. The optimal control technique is applied to different control situations as well as different components of the Lorenz 1963 model. Â
This is a well presented manuscript that introduces some interesting possibilities for weather control, and II only have minor questions that need addressing for clarity.
1) I may have missed it but define what slack variables are in paragraph 110.
2) Same paragraph, the sentence after the equations refers to a right hand side but of which equation in the set?
3) Paragraph 135: Define what is meant by the Lavenberg-Marquardt algorithm and why is it important that you use this one here?
4) Lines 173 and 175: Again I may have missed this but what do you mean by terminal cost and conditions?
5) A comment rather than a question but well done for stating on line 222 that the NR cannot be used as the initial state as we do knot know what the true state is.
6) A remark/question: In the conclusions you mention weather control but we have to take into account latency, in that in the time it has taken the algorithm to converge the atmospheric state may have changes significantly enough from the prediction that the control is null and void. Just something to keep in mind.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2024-4-RC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Fumitoshi Kawasaki, 02 Apr 2024
We thank the reviewers for her/his careful reviews and for kindly giving us valuable and constructive comments and suggestions that helped us improve our manuscript. As a supplemental PDF file, we provide our point-by-point responses, indicated in blue. This PDF file would be useful to check the revised manuscript.Â
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Fumitoshi Kawasaki, 02 Apr 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on npg-2024-4', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Mar 2024
Please find attached my general, specific and technical comments.
I thank the authors for this paper draft, that I recommend for publication after minor revisions.
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AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Fumitoshi Kawasaki, 02 Apr 2024
We thank the reviewers for her/his careful reviews and for kindly giving us valuable and constructive comments and suggestions that helped us improve our manuscript. As a supplemental PDF file, we provide our point-by-point responses, indicated in blue. This PDF file would be useful to check the revised manuscript.Â
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AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Fumitoshi Kawasaki, 02 Apr 2024
Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on npg-2024-4', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Mar 2024
The manuscript put the ideas that have been suggested by Miyoshi and Sun (2022) into a more robust optimal control formulation, although there is no reference to optimal control theory but their terminology is used. The optimal control technique is applied to different control situations as well as different components of the Lorenz 1963 model. Â
This is a well presented manuscript that introduces some interesting possibilities for weather control, and II only have minor questions that need addressing for clarity.
1) I may have missed it but define what slack variables are in paragraph 110.
2) Same paragraph, the sentence after the equations refers to a right hand side but of which equation in the set?
3) Paragraph 135: Define what is meant by the Lavenberg-Marquardt algorithm and why is it important that you use this one here?
4) Lines 173 and 175: Again I may have missed this but what do you mean by terminal cost and conditions?
5) A comment rather than a question but well done for stating on line 222 that the NR cannot be used as the initial state as we do knot know what the true state is.
6) A remark/question: In the conclusions you mention weather control but we have to take into account latency, in that in the time it has taken the algorithm to converge the atmospheric state may have changes significantly enough from the prediction that the control is null and void. Just something to keep in mind.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2024-4-RC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Fumitoshi Kawasaki, 02 Apr 2024
We thank the reviewers for her/his careful reviews and for kindly giving us valuable and constructive comments and suggestions that helped us improve our manuscript. As a supplemental PDF file, we provide our point-by-point responses, indicated in blue. This PDF file would be useful to check the revised manuscript.Â
-
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Fumitoshi Kawasaki, 02 Apr 2024
-
RC2: 'Comment on npg-2024-4', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Mar 2024
Please find attached my general, specific and technical comments.
I thank the authors for this paper draft, that I recommend for publication after minor revisions.
-
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Fumitoshi Kawasaki, 02 Apr 2024
We thank the reviewers for her/his careful reviews and for kindly giving us valuable and constructive comments and suggestions that helped us improve our manuscript. As a supplemental PDF file, we provide our point-by-point responses, indicated in blue. This PDF file would be useful to check the revised manuscript.Â
-
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Fumitoshi Kawasaki, 02 Apr 2024
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