24 Jan 2024
 | 24 Jan 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NPG.

Multifractal structure and Gutenberg-Richter parameter associated with volcanic emissions of high energy in Colima, México (years 2013–2015)

Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, Xavier Lana, and Raúl Arámbula-Mendoza

Abstract. The evolution of multifractal structures in physical processes, for instance, climatology, seismology or volcanology, contributes to detecting changes in the corresponding phenomena. The evolution of the multifractal structure of volcanic emissions of low, moderate, and high energy (Colima, México years 2013–2015) contributes to this research to detect quite evident signs of the immediacy of possible dangerous emissions of high energy close to 8.0x108 J. These signs are manifested by the evolution of six multifractal parameters: the central Hölder exponent (α0), the maximum and minimum Hölder exponents (αmax, αmin) the multifractal amplitude (W= αmaxmin), the multifractal asymmetry (γ = [αmax0]/[α0min]) and the complexity index, CI, which is defined as the addition of normalised values of α0, W and γ. The results of the adapted Gutenberg-Richter seismic law to volcanic emissions of energy, as well as the corresponding skewness and standard deviation of the volcanic emission data, also contribute to confirming the results obtained using multifractal analysis. The obtained results, based on multifractal structure, adaptation of Gutenberg-Richter law to volcanic emissions, and basic statistical parameters, could be assumed as relevant to prevent a forthcoming volcanic episode of high energy, which could be additionally quantified by an appropriate forecasting algorithm.

Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, Xavier Lana, and Raúl Arámbula-Mendoza

Status: open (until 20 Mar 2024)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on npg-2024-2', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Jan 2024 reply
Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, Xavier Lana, and Raúl Arámbula-Mendoza
Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, Xavier Lana, and Raúl Arámbula-Mendoza


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Short summary
Understanding volcanic activity is crucial for uncovering the fundamental physical mechanisms governing this natural phenomenon. In this study, we show the application of multifractal and statistical analysis, to investigate changes associated with volcanic activity. We aim to identify significant variations within the physical processes related to changes in volcanic activity. These methodologies offer the potential to identify pertinent changes preceding a high-energy explosion.