Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2022-12
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2022-12
 
23 Aug 2022
23 Aug 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NPG.

Control Simulation Experiments of Extreme Events with the Lorenz-96 Model

Qiwen Sun1,2, Takemasa Miyoshi1,3,4, and Serge Richard1,2 Qiwen Sun et al.
  • 1Data Assimilation Research Team, RIKEN Center for Computational Science (R-CCS), Kobe, 650-0047, Japan
  • 2Graduate School of Mathematics, Nagoya University, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan
  • 3Prediction Science Laboratory, RIKEN Cluster for Pioneering Research, Kobe, 650-0047, Japan
  • 4RIKEN Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Program (iTHEMS), Kobe, 650-0047, Japan

Abstract. Control Simulation Experiment (CSE) is a recently developed approach to investigate the controllability of dynamical systems, extending the well-known Observing Systems Simulation Experiment (OSSE) in meteorology. For effective control of chaotic dynamical systems, it is essential to exploit the high sensitivity to initial conditions for dragging a system away from an undesired regime by applying minimal perturbations. In this study, we design a CSE for reducing the number of extreme events in the Lorenz-96 model. The 40 variables of this model represent idealized meteorological quantities evenly distributed on a latitude circle. The reduction of occurrence of extreme events over 100 years runs of the model is discussed as a function of the parameters of the CSE: the ensemble forecast length for detecting extreme events in advance, the magnitude and localization of the perturbations, and the quality and coverage of the observations. The design of the CSE is aimed at reducing weather extremes when applied to more realistic weather prediction models.

Qiwen Sun et al.

Status: open (until 18 Oct 2022)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on npg-2022-12', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Sep 2022 reply

Qiwen Sun et al.

Qiwen Sun et al.

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Short summary
This paper is a follow up of a work by T. Miyoshi and Q. Sun which was published as NPG letters in 2022. The Control Simulation Experiment is applied to the Lorenz 96 model for avoiding extreme events. The results show that extreme events of this partially and imperfectly observed chaotic system can be avoided by applying pre-designed small perturbations. These investigations may be extended to more realistic numerical weather prediction models.