01 Feb 2021
01 Feb 2021
A Study of Capturing AMOC Regime Transition through Observation-Constrained Model Parameters
- 1Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education/Institute for Advanced Ocean Study/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (DOMES), Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
- 2Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), Qingdao, 266237, China
- 3International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Model and Prediction (iHESP), Qingdao, 266000, China
- 4College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
- 5College of Science, Liaoning University of Technology, Jinzhou, 121001, China
- 6State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510301, China
- 7College of Marine Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
- 8College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, 150001, China
- 1Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education/Institute for Advanced Ocean Study/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (DOMES), Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
- 2Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), Qingdao, 266237, China
- 3International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Model and Prediction (iHESP), Qingdao, 266000, China
- 4College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
- 5College of Science, Liaoning University of Technology, Jinzhou, 121001, China
- 6State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510301, China
- 7College of Marine Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
- 8College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, 150001, China
Abstract. The multiple equilibria are an outstanding characteristic of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that has important impacts on the Earth climate system appearing as regime transitions. The AMOC can be simulated in different models but the behavior deviates from the real world due to the existence of model errors. Here, we first combine a general AMOC model with an ensemble Kalman filter to form an ensemble coupled model data assimilation and parameter estimation (CDAPE) system, and derive the general methodology to capture the observed AMOC regime transitions through utilization of observational information. Then we apply this methodology designed within a twin
experiment framework with a simple conceptual model that simulates the transition phenomenon of AMOC multiple equilibria, as well as a more physics-based MOC box model to reconstruct the observed
AMOC multiple equilibria. The results show that the coupled model parameter estimation with observations can significantly mitigate the model deviations, thus capturing regime transitions of the AMOC. This simple model study serves as a guideline when a coupled general circulation model is used to incorporate observations to reconstruct the AMOC historical states and make multi-decadal climate predictions.
Zhao Liu et al.
Status: open (until 29 Mar 2021)
Zhao Liu et al.
Zhao Liu et al.
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