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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-26
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-26
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  20 Jul 2020

20 Jul 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NPG.

An Early Warning Sign of Critical Transition in The Antarctic Ice Sheet – A New Data Driven Tool for Spatiotemporal Tipping Point

Abd AlRahman AlMomani1,2 and Erik Bollt1,2 Abd AlRahman AlMomani and Erik Bollt
  • 1Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY 6 13699, USA
  • 2Clarkson Center for Complex Systems Science (C3S2), Potsdam, NY 13699, USA

Abstract. In this paper, we introduce a new tool for data-driven discovery of early warning signs of critical transitions in ice shelves, from remote sensing data. Our approach adopts principles of directed spectral clustering methodology considering an asymmetric affinity matrix and the associated directed graph Laplacian. We applied our approach generally to reprocess the ice velocity data and remote sensing satellite images of the Larsen C ice shelf. Our results allow us to (post-cast) predict fault lines responsible for the critical transitions leading to the break up of the Larsen C ice shelf crack, which resulted in the A68 iceberg. We can do so, months earlier before the actual occurrence, and also much earlier than any other previously available methodology, in particular those based on interferometry.

Abd AlRahman AlMomani and Erik Bollt

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Abd AlRahman AlMomani and Erik Bollt

Abd AlRahman AlMomani and Erik Bollt

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Short summary
In this paper, we introduce a new tool for data-driven discovery of early warning signs of critical transitions in ice shelves, from remote sensing data. Our approach adopts principles of directed spectral clustering methodology considering an asymmetric affinity matrix and the associated directed graph Laplacian. We applied our approach generally to reprocess the ice velocity data and remote sensing satellite images of the Larsen C ice shelf.
In this paper, we introduce a new tool for data-driven discovery of early warning signs of...
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