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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-2
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-2
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  10 Feb 2020

10 Feb 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NPG.

A method to predict the uncompleted climate transition process

Pengcheng Yan1, Guolin Feng2, and Wei Hou2 Pengcheng Yan et al.
  • 1Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration, China
  • 2National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, China

Abstract. Climate change could be expressed as a climate system transiting from the initial state to a new state in a short time. By considering the short period as a continued process, which is called transition process, more details of climate change would be described according to analysis the time sequence self. We had proposed a method to quantify the transition process of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) time sequence and global sea surface temperature system. And the quantitative relationships among the parameters characterizing the abrupt changes is revealed during the transition process. In this paper, we develop this method to predict the end moment (state) if the transition process has not been completed. Application of prediction method to the PDO sequences indicates that the PDO index increased from a stable stage before 2011 and gradually evolved to a transition process, and it was likely to end in 2015, which is consistent with observations.

Pengcheng Yan et al.

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Pengcheng Yan et al.

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Short summary
A system transiting from a stable state to another has to experience a period. Can we predict the end moment (state) if the process has not been completed? This paper presents a method to solve this problem. This method is based on the quantitative relationship among the parameters, which are used to describe the transition process of the abrupt change. By using the historical data, we extract some parameters to predict the uncompleted climate transition process.
A system transiting from a stable state to another has to experience a period. Can we predict...
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