<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NPGD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NPGD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2198-5634</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/npg-2020-12</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Chaotic Signatures and Global Solar Radiation model estimate over Nigeria, a Tropical region</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Adelakun</surname>
<given-names>Adedayo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Adelakun</surname>
<given-names>Folasade</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo state, Nigeria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Crop, Soil and Pest, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo state, Nigeria</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>14</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2020</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>21</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2020 Adedayo Adelakun</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2020-12/">This article is available from https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2020-12/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2020-12/npg-2020-12.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2020-12/npg-2020-12.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&lt;p&gt;In a tropical region like Nigeria, accurate estimation and chaotic signatures of global solar
radiation (&lt;i&gt;R&lt;sub&gt;s&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/i&gt;) are essential to the design of solar energy utilization systems in PV technology
companies and one of the plant growth determinants in Agriculture. The &lt;i&gt;R&lt;sub&gt;s&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/i&gt; model is a function
of solar declination angle, temperature difference, and relative humidity. In this paper, the daily
re-analyzed atmospheric data obtained from the archive of ERA-Interim was used to estimate
the nonlinear Global Solar radiation model and investigated chaotic signatures across the tropical
climatic regions of Nigeria. The well-known statistical tools were used to analyze the chosen
meteorological parameters and the correlation was found to be perfect, close with low values
of RMSE across the selected regions over Nigeria. For proper modeling and prediction of the
underlying dynamics, the extensive chaotic measures of phase space reconstruction using recurrence
plots and recurrence quantification analyses are also presented, analyzed and discussed with the appropriate choice of embedded dimension, m, and time delay &amp;tau;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;
The radiant energy from the sun is one of the most available and renewable resources
across the season in a tropical region like Nigeria.  The information, therefore, suggests
how vital the solar irradiance can be useful in Agriculture and Photovoltaic technology
companies.  Based on the scarcely gauged of global solar radiation (GSR) at meteorological
stations in developing countries.  This demand necessitates a better understanding
of the underlying dynamics for better prediction mostly by the nonlinear Global Solar
radiation model estimate and chaotic signature measurement.  The optimum usage of
meteorological parameters such as solar radiation,  relative humidity and temperature
difference needs further studies, using RPs and RQA measures.  However, several data
such as rainfall data, geomagnetic data, ionospheric data, wind speed data etc obtained
from different parts of the world have been estimated with several models and applied
to RQA measures for better prediction and modeling.  Using RPs and RQA, features
due to external effects such as harmattan and intertropical discontinuity (ITD) on solar
radiation data in this tropical region were uniquely identified.  Meanwhile, the inverse
characteristic behavior of solar radiation and relative humidity were vividly maintained.
The results show a very low value of RMSE while the value of &lt;i&gt;R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/i&gt; is very closed to 1,
which depicts a good prediction for all locations.  However, the highest values of both
SSE and RMSE, as well as the lowest value of &lt;i&gt;R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/i&gt; were observed in kano station,
which indicates high solar irradiance location.  The RPs reviewed the observed clusters points
around the parallel diagonal lines with short segments,  which implies the presence of
chaos.  Additional complex measure, the RQA also shows that the solar radiation during
the dry season of the months has lower values of Lmax, determinism and entropy, and
higher values during the wet season of the months.&lt;/p&gt;</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="21"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>