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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NPG</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NPG</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nonlin. Processes Geophys.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1607-7946</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/npg-8-373-2001</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>The role of soil states in medium-range weather predictability</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fukutome</surname>
<given-names>S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Prim</surname>
<given-names>C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schär</surname>
<given-names>C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Winterthurerstr. 190, CH-8057 Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>31</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2001</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>8</volume>
<issue>6</issue>
<fpage>373</fpage>
<lpage>386</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2001 S. Fukutome et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2001</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Generic License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
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<self-uri xlink:href="https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/8/373/2001/npg-8-373-2001.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/8/373/2001/npg-8-373-2001.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Current day
      operational ensemble weather prediction systems generally rely upon
      perturbed atmospheric initial states, thereby neglecting the eventual
      effect on the atmospheric evolution that uncertainties in initial soil
      temperature and moisture fields could bring about during the summer
      months. The purpose of this study is to examine the role of the soil
      states in medium-range weather predictability. A limited area weather
      prediction model is used with the atmosphere/ land-surface system in
      coupled or uncoupled mode. It covers Europe and part of the north
      Atlantic, and is driven by prescribed sea-surface temperatures over the
      sea, and by atmospheric reanalyses at its lateral boundaries. A series
      of&amp;nbsp; 3 member ensembles of summer simulations are used to assess the
      predictability of a reference simulation assumed to be perfect. In a first
      step, two ensembles are simulated: the first with the atmosphere coupled
      to the land-surface model, the second in the uncoupled mode with perfect
      soil conditions prescribed every 6 hours. Subsequent experiments are
      combinations thereof, in which the uncoupled and coupled modes alternate
      in the course of a simulation. The results show that there are
      &amp;quot;stable&amp;quot; and &amp;quot;unstable&amp;quot; periods in the weather
      evolution under consideration. During the stable periods, the
      predictability (measured in terms of ensemble spread at 500 hPa) of the
      coupled and uncoupled dynamical systems is almost identical; prescribing
      the perfect soil conditions has a negligible impact upon the atmospheric
      predictability. In contrast, the predictability during an unstable phase
      is found to be remarkably improved in the uncoupled ensembles. This effect
      results from guiding the atmospheric phase-space trajectory along its
      perfect evolution. It persists even when switching back from the uncoupled
      to the coupled mode prior to the onset of the unstable phase, a result
      that underlines the importance of soil moisture and temperature in data
      assimilation systems.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="14"/></counts>
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