Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-33-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Localization in the mapping particle filter
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- Final revised paper (published on 26 Jan 2026)
- Preprint (discussion started on 24 Jun 2025)
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- RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2420', Peter Jan van Leeuwen, 20 Jul 2025
- RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2420', Alban Farchi, 24 Jul 2025
- EC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2420', Olivier Talagrand, 25 Jul 2025
- AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2420', Juan Martin Guerrieri, 30 Sep 2025
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AR by Juan Martin Guerrieri on behalf of the Authors (30 Sep 2025)
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ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (01 Oct 2025) by Olivier Talagrand
RR by Peter Jan van Leeuwen (06 Oct 2025)
RR by Alban Farchi (14 Oct 2025)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (17 Oct 2025) by Olivier Talagrand
AR by Juan Martin Guerrieri on behalf of the Authors (27 Nov 2025)
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ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Dec 2025) by Olivier Talagrand
RR by Alban Farchi (10 Dec 2025)
RR by Peter Jan van Leeuwen (21 Dec 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (29 Dec 2025) by Olivier Talagrand
AR by Juan Martin Guerrieri on behalf of the Authors (05 Jan 2026)
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This is a well-written paper on the highly relevant subject of nonlinear filtering for the geosciences. Specifically, the paper focuses on so-called Particle Flow Filters, which have recently been introduced in the geosciences and have to potential to provide an accurate solution for nonlinear high-dimensional applications. However, there are several issues that need attention. The first is to consider a particle flow filter as a special case of a particle filter. This is quite misleading. A particle filter is defined via likelihood weighting, and the effort is concentrated on making these weights more equal. A particle flow filter is an iterative algorithm to move particles from the prior to the posterior via a flow, such that likelihood weighting is not present. It is more an iterative MCMC method. Seeing it as a special particle filter will confuse readers. More importantly, however, is the slight misrepresentation of some of the existing literature and the omission of many relevant papers that appeared in the last 5 years. Furthermore, the particle flow filters are not optimized as they perhaps should be, and the conclusions are overly optimistic on the performance compared to an LETKF. For these reasons, I suggest a major (but could also be considered minor) revision along the lines suggested below.
Abstract: It would be misleading to call the mapping particle filter a particle filter. This might seem a contradiction, but a particle filter is defined by likelihood weights, which are not present in a particle flow filter. A particle flow filter is an iterative ensemble method, perhaps better called an iterative MCMC method, and likelihood weights are not involved by construction. I suggest to remove the confusing statement referring to particle filters.
32: A 4DVar is not a linear DA method, but an iterative nonlinear DA method. It is true that is can struggle when nonlinearity is strong, but that doesn't make it a linear DA method!
42: Localization in particle filters was introduced in Bengtsson, T., Snyder, C. and Nychka, D. (2003) Toward a nonlinear ensemble filter for high-dimensional systems. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, 8775–8785, and independently in van Leeuwen, P.J. (2003) Nonlinear ensemble data assimilation for the ocean. In seminar Recent Developments in Data Assimilation for Atmosphere and Ocean. 8–12 September 2003, ECMWF, Reading, UK.
43: Jittering is used to rejuvenate particles after a tempering step. Please correct the wording.
76: A particle flow filter is not a special particle filter, because it does not use likelihood weighting, see point 1 above.
61: Some recent literature is missing. The stochastic version of the Particle Flow Filter is unbiased at any ensemble size, and solves many of the issues mentioned, see e.g. Gallego, V. and Insua, D. R. (2020) Stochastic gradient mcmc with repulsive forces. arXiv preprint arXiv:1812.00071, https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.00071; Leviyev, A., Chen, J., Wang, Y., Ghattas, O. and Zimmerman, A. (2022) A stochastic stein variational newton method. arXiv:2204.09039. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2204.09039; Ma, Y.-A., Chen, T. and Fox, E. (2015) A complete recipe for stochastic gradient mcmc. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (eds. C. Cortes, N. Lawrence, D. Lee, M. Sugiyama and R. Garnett), vol. 28. Curran Associates, Inc. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1506.04696.
79: The description of Hu and Van Leeuwen is incorrect. They use a preconditioning matrix in the flow to speed up convergence, and they choose a localizated prior covariance for this matrix. The result is that the prior covariance matrix is cancelled by this precondition matrix. Nothing special is done to the likelihood. Note also that the preconditioning matrix does not have to be very accurate, a rough localization will do. This is a distinct difference with LEnKFs, in which accurate locatization is crucial. (PS the method is also applied to a full atmospheric model in Hu, C-C , P.J. van Leeuwen , J. L. Anderson (2024) An implementation of the particle flow filter in an atmospheric model, Monthly Weather Rev., doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-24-0006.1.)
93: Subrahmanya et al also minimize the KL divergence, but formulate the flow field using the FP equation, and then propose approximations to come up with solutions for high-dimensional systems. The main difference with Pulido and Van Leeuwen is that they do not use a RKHS.
Eq. (5): This flow, together with Eq. (4) does not conserve the physical dimension of the state and hence is inconsistent. We did this wrong in 2019, apologies. Assume the state contains temperature measured in K. Then the flow has physical dimension K^{-1} (assuming the kernel has no physical dimension, such as the one used in Eq. (6)), which is inconsistent with Eq. (4). The preconditioning with a covariance matrix of the state as explored by Hu and Van Leeuwen is one way to solve this issue.
147: Note that if the model is stochastic with additive Gaussian errors, Eq. (9) is not an approximation, see Pulido and Van Leeuwen. It might be good to point that out.
160: The beta localization comes close to the methodology implemented in Hu et al. Monthly Weather Rev., doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-24-0006.1.
Eq 10: note difference between independence and uncorrelated. Perhaps rephrase sentence above this.
Eq. 11: Is there a reason to change the nabla notation?
205: Please finish the sentence.
233: In the beta algorithm, assume one grid point is completely updated, and we move to the next point. Will that point use the updated first grid point value, or the original first grid point value? The former will lead to smoother global fields, but makes the result depend on the order in which the grid points are updated. One could imagine a mixture between alpha and beta, where beta is used over the whole filed at each iteration. Hu et al. Monthly Weather Rev., doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-24-0006.1 use another local updating scheme. It might be something to discuss; it would help future users of these methods.
Eq. (23): what does the index LS mean? I assume Large Scale?
263: Notation: M means something different in section 3.0 compared to here.
324: Particle filters -> particle flow filters
Experiments: It doesn't make sense to tune methods on lowest RMSE because ensemble spread is as important. For instance, in operational weather prediction centers both are optimized. If not corrected in the experiments, please provide some discussion.
Experiments: Can the authors provide a rule of thumb for choosing the hyperparameters?
Experiments: Can the authors provide a rough comparison of computational costs compared to the LETKF?
456: I would not say that the LMPF are 'highly competitive' compared to an LETKF. They tend to be worse, and with similar performance at best. The spread is typically underestimated, which is not a good sign.
469: Convergence results of the MPF rely on keeping the kernel a fixed function of its two arguments, and changing the covariance matrix does not fulfil this criterion. 'this matrix must evolve with pseudo time' is incorrect. Please change the text and mention this issue.
474: A step in this direction is Hu et al Monthly Weather Rev., doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-24-0006.1.