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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NPG</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NPG</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nonlin. Processes Geophys.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1607-7946</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/npg-20-1001-2013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Parameter variations in prediction skill optimization at ECMWF</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ollinaho</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bechtold</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1967-3382</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Leutbecher</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Laine</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5914-6747</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Solonen</surname>
<given-names>A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Haario</surname>
<given-names>H.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Järvinen</surname>
<given-names>H.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1879-6804</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, Helsinki,  Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>University of Helsinki, Department of Physics, Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2a, Helsinki, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, Lappeenranta, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>20</volume>
<issue>6</issue>
<fpage>1001</fpage>
<lpage>1010</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2013 P. Ollinaho et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2013</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/20/1001/2013/npg-20-1001-2013.html">This article is available from https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/20/1001/2013/npg-20-1001-2013.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/20/1001/2013/npg-20-1001-2013.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/20/1001/2013/npg-20-1001-2013.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Algorithmic numerical weather prediction (NWP) skill optimization has been
tested using the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre
for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We report the results of initial
experimentation using importance sampling based on model parameter estimation
methodology targeted for ensemble prediction systems, called the ensemble
prediction and parameter estimation system (EPPES). The same methodology was
earlier proven to be a viable concept in low-order ordinary differential
equation systems, and in large-scale atmospheric general circulation models
(ECHAM5). Here we show that prediction skill optimization is possible even in
the context of a system that is (i) of very high dimensionality, and (ii)
carefully tuned to very high skill. We concentrate on four closure parameters
related to the parameterizations of sub-grid scale physical processes of
convection and formation of convective precipitation. We launch standard
ensembles of medium-range predictions such that each member uses different
values of the four parameters, and make sequential statistical inferences
about the parameter values. Our target criterion is the squared forecast
error of the 500 hPa geopotential height at day three and day ten. The EPPES
methodology is able to converge towards closure parameter values that
optimize the target criterion. Therefore, we conclude that estimation and
cost function-based tuning of low-dimensional static model parameters is
possible despite the very high dimensional state space, as well as the
presence of stochastic noise due to initial state and physical tendency
perturbations. The remaining question before EPPES can be considered as a
generally applicable tool in model development is the correct formulation of
the target criterion. The one used here is, in our view, very selective.
Considering the multi-faceted question of improving forecast model
performance, a more general target criterion should be developed. This is a
topic of ongoing research.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="10"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>European Commission</funding-source>
<award-id>EMBRACE - Earth system Model Bias Reduction and assessing Abrupt Climate change (282672)</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
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</article>