NPG Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics NPG Nonlin. Processes Geophys. 1607-7946 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/npg-19-595-2012 A stochastic nonlinear oscillator model for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions derived from ice-core data Kwasniok F. 1 Lohmann G. 2 College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany 07 11 2012 19 6 595 603 Copyright: © 2012 F. Kwasniok 2012 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/19/595/2012/npg-19-595-2012.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/19/595/2012/npg-19-595-2012.pdf

A stochastic Duffing-type oscillator model, i.e noise-driven motion with inertia in a potential landscape, is considered for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions. The potential and noise parameters are estimated from a Greenland ice-core record using a nonlinear Kalman filter. For the period from 60 to 20 ky before present, a bistable potential with a deep well corresponding to a cold stadial state and a shallow well corresponding to a warm interstadial state is found. The system is in the strongly dissipative regime and can be very well approximated by an effective one-dimensional Langevin equation.

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