NPG Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics NPG Nonlin. Processes Geophys. 1607-7946 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/npg-18-573-2011 A chaotically driven model climate: extreme events and snapshot attractors Bódai T. 1 Károlyi Gy. 2 Tél T. 1 Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös University, Pázmány P. s. 1/A, Budapest, 1117, Hungary Dept. of Structural Mechanics, Budapest Univ. of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3., Budapest, 1111, Hungary 07 09 2011 18 5 573 580 Copyright: © 2011 T. Bódai et al. 2011 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/18/573/2011/npg-18-573-2011.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/18/573/2011/npg-18-573-2011.pdf

In a low-order chaotic global atmospheric circulation model the effects of deterministic chaotic driving are investigated. As a result of driving, peak-over-threshold type extreme events, e.g. cyclonic activity in the model, become more extreme, with increased frequency of recurrence. When the characteristic time of the driving is comparable to that of the undriven system, a resonance effect with amplified variance shows up. For very fast driving we find a reduced enhancement of variance, which is also the case with white noise driving. Snapshot attractors and their natural measures are determined as a function of time, and a resonance effects is also identified. The extreme value statistics of group maxima is found to follow a Weibull distribution.

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