NPG Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics NPG Nonlin. Processes Geophys. 1607-7946 Copernicus Publications GΓΆttingen, Germany 10.5194/npg-17-405-2010 Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges Siek M. 1 Solomatine D. P. 1 2 Department of Hydroinformatics and Knowledge Management, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands Water Resources Section, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands 06 09 2010 17 5 405 420 Copyright: © 2010 M. Siek 2010 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/17/405/2010/npg-17-405-2010.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/17/405/2010/npg-17-405-2010.pdf

This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

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